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A big question is how many casualties. So far civilian numbers seems very light. I don't think it's clear that many of these ballistic missiles hit "the center of Tel Aviv". Right now I'm getting the impression that - like last time - it's air bases and desert getting hit. The impressive videos could perhaps cool things down as it makes Iran not look completely impotent, and they can use that in their propaganda while Israel took little to know civilian casualties and almost certainly moved anything really pricey (e.g. F-35s) out of the way.
This indicates to me that Hezbollah is heavily attritted, or we'd see a much bigger response from them. Instead the response had to come from Iran.
I mean, it's entirely possible Iran targeted like, empty deserts and artillery ranges because the point was showing that they could get through Israeli air defenses, not inflicting casualties.
Agree that Hezbollah is likely not very militarily effective right now. I've seen scattered reports on twitter indicating most of Hezbollah has retreated as far away from Israel as possible and the non-Hezbollah Lebanese are just letting Israel hit them wherever they happen to be if not actively betraying them. This is probably what you'd expect from a SMO against an adversary softened up enough to not have much command and control left.
Iran seems to have targeted Israeli air bases
Maybe they weren't aiming at casualties, but they seem to have been making a statement.
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I wouldn't be surprised if Iran was just after the photo op. For all we know, the point of firing the missiles could be just to remind the world that they're capable of making trouble if anyone pushes them too far. The world duly reminded, the Iranians don't have to fear looking weak as they make the strategically sound decision to back off, regroup, and let their allies take the L.
The real threat seems to be towards the oil fields and other crucial infrastructure (ie desalination plants!!!) of neighbouring American allied countries.
They are reminding Saudis (who will presumably give a call to the US) that they can absolutely wreak havoc if it comes to real war
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The impressive videos will cool things down? Is this a serious statement? The 'impressive videos' tell us nothing about how effective the barrage actually was. In any case nothing about this will cool things down. Iran must be hit and they must be hit now.
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