This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
Who will be on the ballot in the swing states?
I figured this is something that's in the news, especially regarding RFK, but generally hasn't been comprehensively compiled. There's a helpful wikipedia page. The election's close enough, given current polling, that the 3rd party candidates could matter.
Arizona: Trump, Harris, Stein (Green Party), Oliver (Libertarian party).
West (ex-Green Party) tried to be a write-in, but failed. RFK successfully dropped out. There's technically Shiva Ayyadurai as a write-in as well (if wikipedia's right), but I never heard of him, and it looks like he's ineligible anyway? Overall, this is pretty typical: Oliver gives unhappy R-leaners an out (though he's socially more progressive than those who care about abortion, for example); Stein gives unhappy D-leaners an out.
Nevada: Trump, Harris, Oliver, Skousen (Constitution party).
This is about as D-friendly of a slate as it gets, at least, in states keeping RFK off. Stein was kicked off on technicalities (the people in the government gave her team a form, but it was missing a field, so it was invalid. The requirement of that field was merely by rules, not even by statute.), per a recent (politically-aligned) supreme court ruling. Nevada has no write-ins (along with 9 other states), so West and Stein will get 0 votes. Skousen's with the state constitution party, but they broke with the national party in nominating him over the official Constitution party candidate (more on that later). He seems to be running as a generic non-Trump Republican (It's an ugly website). Pretty bad arrangement for Republicans, where R-leaners will have other options, but the best option for single-issue Palestine voters is the libertarian candidate.
Georgia: Trump, Harris, Stein, Oliver, West, De La Cruz (Party for Socialism and Liberation).
This is about as R-friendly of a slate as a state gets, which is still only moderately so, as Oliver is on the ballot. The democrats have been trying to get Stein, West, and De La Cruz off the ballot, but it looks like the Secretary of State thinks they've qualified.
North Carolina: Trump, Harris, Stein, Oliver, West, Terry (Constitution Party), and maybe RFK?
North Carolina has the five most common candidates. Terry's the national Constitution Party candidate, unlike Skousen in Nevada. His biggest thing seems to be abortion, which seems like it could actually draw some dissatisfied voters—I'm hoping not. RFK's the big thing—he tried to drop out, but they'd already printed a bunch of early ballots. They've delayed distributing the ballots because of him, but haven't yet decided whether they're going to print new ones, or just go with what they have.
Pennsylvania: Trump, Harris, Stein, Oliver.
Pennsylvania is one of 9 states where there's automatic write-in access. Everywhere else requires the candidate to register. That is, they'll only count your vote for your dad if you happen to live in Alabama, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, or Wyoming. I personally find it a bit sad that those votes aren't even counted everywhere else. On the other hand, this must really slow down elections, as they would have to read and tabulate all candidates, presumably, not just those on a set, narrow list?
Anyway, that means that West is available if people really want him, as is literally everyone who's eligible for the presidency. (Courts ruled against him being put on a ballot, because he had filed paperwork for the candidate, not for each of his electors.) Not sure what to make of the radical freedom, but the slate on the ballot itself seems fair.
Michigan: Trump, Harris, Stein, Oliver, West?, RFK?, Terry, Kishore (Socialist Equality Party).
RFK's still going through the process to get himself removed. The Michigan Supreme Court's relatively partisan, though, so I have no expectation that they'll uphold the appeals court: he's probably staying on. West's ballot is also headed to the Supreme Court, over signatures and affidavits and such. Kishore talks about Gaza—I'm wondering if he's trying to appeal to muslims, it being Michigan. RFK should hurt Republicans, I imagine?
Wisconsin: Trump, Harris, Stein, Oliver, West, Terry, De La Cruz, RFK.
RFK's suing to get his name off after the elections commission ruled that he stays on, but I don't expect that to work out. This seems to have candidates on both sides, but keeping on RFK is probably what matters most.
In sum, then, we have:
3 states possibly keeping RFK: Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina. (These also happen to be the ones with Terry.)
3 states with no RFK, and with Stein: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania.
1 state with neither: Nevada.
The 1st and 3rd slates are ones Democrats should be happier about, the 2nd are ones that Republicans should be happier about. If this was the sole factor we cared about, Democrats would win, 273-265.
Bonus: a few more marginal states.
Maine has the main five (and so is in category 2. Yes, it is one of the ones RFK chose to withdraw from. One of its electoral votes could go either way.)
Nebraska has the main 5, plus RFK. I'm surprised RFK didn't try to withdraw here; that one electoral vote could matter.
New Hampshire has automatic write-ins like PA, but on the ballot proper only adds Oliver and Stein.
Virginia has the ordinary five, plus De La Cruz.
Florida is unusual. No West, but it has De La Cruz. It has Terry, and the American Solidarity Party's Peter Sonski. The ASP seems to be a pro-life, somewhat anti-capitalist party. Unlike the Constitution Party, a good-looking website. I'm sure they're delightful people, but we'd have different economic views.
Texas has the minimalistic 4 on the ballot, and as write-ins: West, De La Cruz, and Sonski.
I'll probably add in some edits down below here if I hear of any updates. I suppose the overall takeaway here, assuming you're R-leaning, is to see the situation in NV, WI, MI, and maybe NC as slightly worse than you would have thought otherwise, and GA, AZ, and PA as normal.
EDIT: RFK off the ballot in North Carolina, on the ballot in Michigan. West on the ballot in Michigan.
It's a Catholic left party for those who can't look past the DNC's views on abortion. Prolife, anti-death penalty, anti-euthanasia, generally left(if often moderately so) everywhere else. Not true isolationists but antiwar. Very pro-immigration. Anti-gay in theory but kinda squishy about it on any particular issue. This is not a large number of people.
The Catholic right has no qualms about supporting Trump or the constitution party, so you don't see an integralist party. Kinda a reverse march through institutions.
More options
Context Copy link
See re NC and MI: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/rfk-jr-lawsuit-delays-mail-ballots-north-carolina-rcna168237
More options
Context Copy link
See also the Ballotpedia page.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link