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Notes -
Speak plainly.
This is true only in some trivial butterfly effect sense that is beneath notice, if you mean some deeper theory about it say it out loud.
Quite literally, this guy would not have knifed a Taylor swift themed dance party if he’d been in Rwanda.
Yes but this takes the same form as many other protests that rely on terrible logic, and can be rejected out of hand.
[Black guy of the week] wouldn't have been killed by the cops if we didn't have cops.
[Schoolchildren at whatever mass shooting] wouldn't be dead if civilians didn't have access to semiautomatic weapons.
Further
Why would you rather talk about gun rights than dead school children?
Why would you rather talk about property damage than dead black people?
It's an absurdity. What are those against the riots supposed to do? Say, oh, yeah some kid went nuts, guess that means you're allowed to riot for some period of time!
I don't see how any of your examples show that the statement you complained about was only true in a trivial butterfly effect way. This isn't about an absurdly one-in-a-trillion event that you could plausibly say would be replaced by some other random tragedy if the immigration policy was different.
Say "riots bad, just do peaceful protests"? It's really not that hard, this is what the anti-BLM faction said originally, and was greeted with brilliant takes about how rioting is the language of the unheard.
How did that go for the anti BLM faction? Did that stop the rioting?
How is that argument about the butterfly effect going to stop the riots?
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If you don't import Rwandans, there won't be Rwandan descended people that will stab British schoolgirls. If you don't import Pakistani you won't have thousand raped white girls in Rotherham.
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Read charitably.
I disagree that it is true only in some "trivial butterfly effect sense." The children of recent immigrants are often targets for radicalization; indeed, crime rises among second-generation immigrants as they assimilate, though I've seen some recent (I suspect politically-motivated) attempts to muddy the waters on this.
I do not see anything racist about protesting against lax immigration standards when the inciting event was perpetrated by the child of recent immigrants. I find the counterprotesters in question exceptionally blameworthy.
I mentioned this above, but surely the parents aren't "recent" immigrants in nearly any sense of the word, right? Unless I have my timeline wrong they must have been in the country for at least 17 years, yes?
Speaking as someone who is British I would consider someone a "recent" immigrant if their family has only lived in Britain for the past few hundred years. Once you're past the three hundred year mark I think you probably have some right to be called local.
Even if you sincerely hold this view, surely you understand why it looks like disingenuous special pleading to nearly everyone else?
The line "huh, they're English the second they sneak in on a truck, but I'm still a Colonizer living on Stolen Land after 300 years?" has been going around. So any disingenuousness goes both ways.
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I'd be willing to bet money that if you did a textual analysis of every use of the word "recent" as used by British people you'd find that easily 95% of the use of the word is used for lengths of time less than 10 years. Probably more. Challenge: can you even find a single example of the word being used, in a politics-adjacent way, to mean 20 years or more? I honestly don't think you can, not without breaking out the history books. The modern debate is one with the context of politics, not history. While I realize "history" is an extremely slippery term, there's a reason we don't really start to use it until the 20-30 year mark. The distinction? If I had to take a stab at it, I'd say "politics" is implicitly something you can do something about, and history is not (and history is also something you need a little distance from to gain greater benefits of hindsight as well as some extra objectivity). Although anecdotally that window seems to be narrowing (I've seen some "historical"-oriented analysis of events as recent as 15 years ago).
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Given the finding that second-generation immigrant populations commit more crime than their first-gen parents did, shouldn't this actually be a warning sign - "if the current number of stabbings is bad based on 2000-level immigrant populations of [x], how bad is it going to be in 2044, when the current migrant populations of [5x-10x] turns over to a feisty second generation?"
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