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PaperclipPerfector  4mo ago (text post)   37983 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of July 8, 2024

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We're all probably overreacting in terms of the electoral implications.

But it's a problem that Biden can't afford right now, with everyone questioning whether he has the juice to even make it to November.

We're all probably overreacting in terms of the electoral implications.

It gives Trump Pennsylvania, assuming nothing else dramatic happens between now and the election. Plenty could still happen. And honestly, when I heard about the assassination attempt I checked to see if Biden had died, but the timeline isn't quite that dank.

Why would Pennsylvania have a bigger impact than other states?

Pennsylvania is a swing state with the most delegates. If you're asking why the shooting would have a bigger impact in PA... because it happened there. Even in the internet age, proximity matters.

Butler is just so far from Philly suburbs it might as well be a different state. More Philadelphians go to NYC, DC every year than go to Pittsburgh. Northwest pa was already Trump country.

Yet votes in western PA count towards the state wide totals

Marginal voters exist and they swing every election. Independents are a large and growing percentage of the population.

It also changes the new cycle likely giving Biden a lifeline to stay in which is probably bad for Dems.

I'm not sure it changes things that much on that front. The GOP convention was set to begin tomorrow anyway, which would have sucked all the media coverage away from Biden.

Maybe. You could imagine court intrigue still occurring. Also killed any more stories over the last 24 hours and tomorrow.

The aspect is a replacement may be less keen to run if they believe Trump is in a better spot again killing the “replace Biden momentum” albeit for a different reason.

If anything, I think this is going to leave a lasting overshadow over a lot of Trump's court proceedings.

Eh, Trump's VP pick was going to be the main news cycle of the week regardless.

But that assumes he’d pick the VP Monday. Again there could be a few more days.

Agree. And whether or not is affects electoral outcomes, the conventional wisdom is that it does. That may give alternative candidates pause.

Nate Silver makes a good point that when you’re behind, you want to increase variance. Other candidates are likely to lose to trump too, but the chance of them catching fire with voters is higher than Biden.

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