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The core Red Tribe trusts the institutions even when those institutions are blatantly abusing them. Some of them will mistrust a particular institution when it's doing something particularly bad extremely publicly (e.g. the Loudon County School Board). But as soon as the heat's off they'll go right back to trusting them.
@hydroacetylene is correct.
It's hard to overstate how much true "deplorables" are blackpilled on politics. This explains the enduring MAGA base, but also its Trump (as a person) centric nature. Not even the acolytes like Marjorie Taylor Green are seen as anywhere near equivalent because everyone in Washington is seen as already corrupted.
The number one mood affiliation / vibe problem with Appalachia, greater Ozarkia, SE Ohio, and the other endemic Redneck and Hillbilly regions is deeply seeded nihilistic views on the future. These people aren't "mad as hell!" they think the game is already over. They vote so solidly for Trump because he's the only one who meets them at that level and seems to be willing to, maybe, burn it all down. The idea that once the Blue Tribe approves something they will "go right back to trusting them" is farcical because most of that trust was already erased by the time Obama was in office (it started during the Clinton years). This is the demographic that is already a full generation into dropping out of the workforce and is now dropping out of life (the often cited "deaths of despair" statistic, while a little misleading in general, is still anchored in the areas I'm talking about).
The change since 2016 and into 2024 is that that nihilism has started to bleed out of these endemically impoverished areas. It starts in the wreckage of coal country and unnavigable hollers that never really had a chance to share in IT-focused growth, moves to flat land rural areas (farms, the Inter Mountain west, eventually the plains), and then gets to the exurbs of the Old Confederacy (interesting to note that Loudoun county, VIRGINIA, is one of the top 5 (!) wealthiest in the country, yet was a flashpoint for very culture war-y topics).
The single critical demographic for this year's election is suburban women. What do they think of the candidates? If you think things are kind of screwed up but your own extended family is more or less safe, healthy, and out of jail, you're probably holding your nose and going for Biden because Trump is just such an ass!. But If a large portion of your extended family male kin are dead, in jail, addicted, even if you "made it out" you might gesture towards "both options suck" but then slam down that Trump lever in the booth when it counts. That's what all them fancy French ladies did
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No, it does not. You would be well served by actually speaking to rednecks at some point.
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