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PaperclipPerfector  5mo ago (text post)   26566 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of June 3, 2024

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I’m skeptical that the current LLM strand of AI is going to accomplish much but I absolutely agree that the US and West more generally should devote a lot of energy to attaining AI dominance. Life for almost everyone except for a few insider Han Chinese will be much much better off if the West gets there first. AI aligned with the American blue tribe will force red tribe Americans to watch black Superman; AI aligned with the American red tribe will force blue tribe Americans to drive pickup trucks; AI aligned with the CCP will kill or enslave every non-Han.

Unless you're a Marxist-Leninist, which would presumably make you the first on this forum, this rather depends on the assumption that CPC's formal commitment to Marxism-Leninism, an ideology which historically has had a great deal of ideas what to do worldwide, is completely an empty letter and will remain so indefinitely.

I certainly hope that it is, but can't know for sure. That said, I believe a country with one of the most advanced capitalist economies in history is functionally extremely different than the USSR, and I feel much more comfortable being bullish on it.

Man, that’s textbook outgroup vs. fargroup. The U.S. enforces a rules-based international order. China would probably do something similar, but under pretty different rules. Ones that I would argue are much less compatible with longstanding European traditions.

enforces a rules-based international order

Up until the second that the rules come into conflict with US interests. "Rules-based international order" is a propaganda term that Western news outlets repeat like robots. I believe that it was chosen exactly because saying it is so ridiculous in face of reality, that it serves as an ultimate loyalty signal, like "the sky is green".

The US, like evey major power or hegemon, imposes its will, unconcerned with principles and consistency.

China would probably do something similar, but under pretty different rules.

I am sure they would exercise power. But I am not sure what the maximum extent of that power would look like.

Ones that I would argue are much less compatible with longstanding European traditions.

I am just unconvinced that Chinese dominance would mean a completely different political and cultural system in Europe. I can see many positives (countries I like no longer being bullied by the US), and can imagine outcomes where the Chinese mostly meddle less than the US.

I think those are easier to imagine when Chinese dominance feels distant.

For a country with a much higher level of Chinese influence, consider Myanmar. Is that really preferable to the style of U.S. involvement?

This is a bridge too far. We know what CPC dominance looks like and it's not great. Think of Tibet. Think of Xinjiang.

We also know what US dominance looks like. It looks like Netherlands, Germany, or Poland.

In Xinjiang the CPC executed a heavy-handed response to a real, substantial domestic terror threat. I doubt the CPC in the dominance scenario will ever have the capacity to do so in the Netherlands, nor that it would ever judge it necessary.

Netherlands, Germany, or Poland

That has little to do with the US, and a lot to do with the native population.

I don't know what CPC dominance would look like. But I am guessing that the intrusiveness would be much closer to US levels (cultural, geopol) than to the USSR. Why? I have acquaintances from China and access to the internet, it is nothing like the USSR.

Why? I have acquaintances from China and access to the internet, it is nothing like the USSR.

The claim is that non-Hans do poorly under Han dominance. So the experience of an ethnic Han living in Shanghai is not relevant. The experience of a Tibetan living in Lhasa is.

I doubt the CPC in the dominance scenario will ever have the capacity to do so in the Netherlands,

The other claim is that, with superintelligent AI, the capacity to act would be essentially unlimited. So there would be no practical constraints on the power of the CCP, only moral constraints. We don't really know what China would do if they had complete dominion over ethnic Europeans. It hasn't really happened before. But I personally wouldn't want to find out.

We don't really know what China would do if they had complete dominion over ethnic Europeans. It hasn't really happened before.

1945 was not total US dominion over ethnic Europeans, and even from there it's a long way to 'essentially unlimited capacity to act'. What would US do with that? Maybe I'm naive, I don't know much about China, I am aware of the outlines of the Mao period, but don't think we have reasons to think the Chinese singleton variant is obviously the worse one.

Once upon a time, I'm sure faraway and more isolationist America seemed vastly less threatening to Europeans than the near enemies. In fact, this is exactly what American hegemony in Europe still depends on.

Once upon a time, America had never jumped into the sorts of ill-fated intervention to reshape the Middle East one might expect of other powers.

Once upon a time, Japan was isolationist.

I don't understand why people act like China's historical inability to harm Europe or best it at the colonial game is some immutable part of its character.

That's the kind of claim which requires a little more effort.

If you're trying to be dramatic, you're coming on too strong. Cool it down a bit.

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