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Notes -
The federal authority in charge of prosecuting this kind of crime did not think it was a crime.
Could they have? According to LawyerGPT
The DOJ also was referred this conduct and did not charge it. Saying this was an election law violation requires a tortured interpretation of the statute, and arguably would have put Trump in a catch-22 situation where classifying the expense as a campaign expense would be illegal, but also not classifying it as a campaign expense was illegal.
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Ok? They didn't refer Trump's conduct to anyone either -- probably because they didn't think it was clear that paying Daniels was a campaign expense. Or maybe because paying her through an intermediary doesn't make it a donation by that person.
They did think paying McDougal off was a campaign expense though. Remember the FEC committee is equally split between Republicans and Democrats so what the FEC thinks is basically what a 6 person panel equally split between two opposing sides can hammer out as a compromise. They fined AMI for paying McDougal off on behalf of Trump.
Did Trump pay them back?
I believe not, just pointing it out because it does counter a couple of your points (that they didn't think it was clear paying an affair partner was a campaign expense) and (paying through an intermediary doesn't make it a donation).
For McDougal they held it was a campaign expense and that AMI paying it made it a donation, which therefore needed to be declared etc.
For Daniels, Trump paid back Cohen which is the difference here, not whether it was a campaign expense, or whether absent Trump paying it back it would have been a donation. Both of those were held to be true in the McDougal case. Paying the intermediary back is the difference here.
I guess a tabloid newspaper is the kind of organization that might plausibly make a large donation to a presidential campaign; there's sort of a tinge of bribery, so go ahead and fine them I guess. (It doesn't seem like the sort of thing they would do without some quid pro quo involved)
However it seems much less plausible that a lawyer working for Trump would make such a large donation? And if he wanted to surely there are better ways to launder it -- the intent is all-important here AFAICT.
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See comment above. Important to note that Brad Smith was appointed by a dem so his opinion adds some weight.
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The FEC looked at this very case and decided not to bring any action. The Judge in this trial prevented Trump from providing this fact to the jury.
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