Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.
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Notes -
Article prophesising and diagnosing doom on the Indian economy: https://time.com/6969626/india-modi-economy-election/
Some of it is really staggering - 10 million manufacturing jobs were lost even before Covid. Indian manufacturing employment halved in 5 years (up to 2021 but doesn't seem to have recovered that much, though output is rising). Even in output it's still quite low as a % of the economy, falling as a proportion the 2010s. Meanwhile there are 60 million extra farm workers: deurbanization and deindustrialization. India is at the bottom of the Global Hunger Index, below North Korea and above Afghanistan.
I note that the article author wrote a book on Modi despotism so can't be considered unbiased, yet he has a lot of pretty ominous links. Some of them are structured in a deceptive way - 'crude imports' being down 14% goes against the article's overall message of trade increasing, even if goods exports decreased. It's always good to read these kinds of articles with a sceptical eye, economics is so broad that you can paint all kinds of pictures. It looks like India is focusing very heavily on services rather than manufacturing, leaving it rather vulnerable to AI disruption, as self_made_human has predicted. Vietnam exports more manufactured goods, while India's overall exports are much higher.
There's also this fun website that graphs exports by type: https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore?country=104&queryLevel=location&product=undefined&year=2021&productClass=HS&target=Product&partner=undefined&startYear=undefined
India is ICT nation, the tech support stereotype. China and Vietnam do manufacturing. Russia and Australia dig things out of the ground. The US does services and manufacturing.
Experts without specific takes are the worst bunch. If Modi hating is your full-time job, then have your attacks honed to perfection. These 'everything is horrible' articles are exhausting and teach you nothing.
"India's is doing badly because Modi......" Come on, keep going. Modi how ? What specific policies did Modi enact that ruined the economy ? What alternatives does the opposition propose that will fix the economy ?".
IMO, This article correctly points out the main challenges to economic development in India.
(quotes from the article)
Simplifying tax laws means consolidating the tax code at the national level. States see this as a powergrab and Modi gets termed a fascist.
Judicial reform requires parlimentary inference in the indepdendent judiciary. Democracy watchers view this as a powergrab and Modi gets termed a fascist.
Non-BJP states have among the strongest labor protections in the nation (Delhi, WB, Kerala, Bihar, ex-UP, ). When BJP regains control, it tries to weaken them. Ofc, he gets called a corporate sell out.
Modi has many failings. I would be sympathetic towards the opposition if they agreed with informed economists on Modi being too-left wing. Instead, critics of Modi call every pro-market move fascist and his political opposition encourages dragging India back to Nehruvian-era socialist isolationism.
To avoid being hypocritical, here are his specific failings from my perspective.
Lack of eggs (protien) in school diets
India uniquely underperforms on child wasting. The reason goes back to 1970s and the introduction of the wheat, rice & simple carb heavy diets post green-revolution. Under-nourishment is low because because peopel get sufficient calories. However, the lack of protien causes child-wasting.
Indian farm laws massively subsidize wheat, rice and simple carbs, and that's all poor families can afford. Modi tried to fix this by removing grains-specific subsidies in the 2019 farm-bill. This bill recieved massive push-back from opposition and the elite global left for being anti-farmer. Under pressure, Modi's revoked the bill. This was his first mistake.
We need more eggs in school lunches. More protein. Modi hasn't done anything towards this, neither has anyone else.
Demonetization
Demonetization (2017) was a disaster. It is known. That being said, the article primarily focuses on post-covid recovery (or lack there off). India's economy is in a recent (2023-24) rut. I don't have an answer to what recent change has caused this.
Unsufficient progress on ease of doing business
Land acquisition
Modi has failed to pass the land acquisition bill over 2 terms. It has been touted as the biggest impediment to doing business in India. Modi claims he will bring the reforms in during a 3rd term. But he had a big-enough mandate from 2019-2024. The reason for this failure, was due to global and national pressure because the bill was percieved as anti-farmer.
Judicial reform
The slow moving judiciary is the 2nd biggest impediment to doing business in India. India's judiciary is full independent, so the Govt. doesn't have much power here. Afaik, there is massive resistance to any Judicial reform by the Modi govt. So both sides continue to be in an uncomfortable marraige, while cases pile on.
Simpler tax codes
Modi hasn't exactly failed here. It is more so that he hasn't pushed enough. GST was implemented, good. It remains unpopular among the opposition, the left and the global elite. But, he got it through However, other campaign promises remain in 'draft' phase... Overall, I find this to be an insufficient reform. Good start, but taxation remains insanely complex.
Overall, I remain cautiously bullish on India.
From a resource standpoint, it is agriculturally self-sufficient, has an incredible appetite for solar power and has an adequate water supply. Societally, it has strong family structures, a commitment to education and a stable fertility rate. You can't underestimate the long term benefits of this.
Some tax reform, eggs and weaker labor laws should keep India over water for the next decade. If the ease of doing business genuinely improves, then we might just be in for a bumber decade.
If India misses this decade of population-pyramid perfection, then we're FUCKED big time.
Good points. India's fertility is anything but stable though. There's getting old before you get rich and then there's getting old before you're out of poverty. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=IN
I have no problem with Modi personally, running such a big country democratically is a big ask. US democracy is not exactly high performance governance, how is anyone supposed to manage 4x the population with a small fraction of the wealth?
IMO India needs to follow the standard industrial route out of poverty. Special economic zones, foreign investment, light industry -> heavy industry -> high-tech industry and then services. Doing this in a democracy is very difficult, as you point out. Getting the tax and judiciary right is easy for autocracies, hard for democracies. Plus there's an excessive focus on IT and software. Software is all well and good but what about hardware? What about making the solar panels? Without manufacturing there's no firm base for development, skipping from agricultural to service-economy has never been done AFAIK. Vietnam has been on the right path and is pulling ahead.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=IN-VN
Agreed on all counts. There are zero real democracies that have managed a transition from poverty to wealth. They all grew as autocracies and converted to democracies once stable.
India is unlikely to become autocratic, but the current setup has too many checks and balances. I am a big proponent of reducing states rights and opening the judiciary (primarily by allowing fast track appointments for those who excel at standardized testing , setting targets for case clearance as part of promotions and limiting the supreme court to matters of constitution, rather than morality).
That's a good start. India has fair elections. Let those elected to the parliament choose the path for the nation. Too much beaurocracy is no good.
Zero?
Iceland, Ireland and Finland come immediately to mind.
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Another bad day for Ukraine: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1784291236188160441.html
This is... starting to look like an envelopment, at least at the local level around Chasiv Yar. Again I don't think the actual battle lines or territory matters that much, but it's another sign that the Ukraine forces are starting to lose their effectiveness and can no longer hold the line like they used to. Let us hope that the latest aid package gives them significant help.
It looks like Russia is developing a giant pincer movement that will envelop Niu-York.
man this sounds weird out of context. I had to double check that that's a real place.
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German Greens falsified evidence in order to phase out nuclear power back in 2022. Recently there was a Freedom of Information lawsuit that, despite the best efforts of the government, won and uncovered the documents. Amusingly the govt pleaded 'this needs to be kept secret lest all the countries we're trying to spruke our anti-nuclear, green ideology to realise how silly it is and combat our foreign policy' but failed.
https://thedeepdive.ca/deep-dive-documents-reveal-green-party-manipulated-germany-to-push-nuclear-phase-out/
A small group of Green politicians rewrote notes from technical experts to reverse the core message to be pro-shutdown of nuclear plants, fabricating safety concerns and arguing that necessary life-extension upgrades hadn't been undertaken. Despite being told that the message was rubbish they pressed on, lying to the public about why they were pushing what they were pushing.
The Germans turned their nuclear plants back on in a brief life-extension back in late 2022 before shutting them all down in 2023. I've maintained for several years that there's a high-level sabotage campaign against nuclear energy in the Western world. Most of the time it's not as clear as this. Usually it's procedural manipulation, regulations requiring pointlessly complicated and exacting reactor designs, obliterating the industry by not letting new power plants be made and a stubborn refusal to store nuclear waste permanently.
Is that a version of this word? I never encountered either before, but the context seems right...
https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/spruik
Yes, though I honestly thought it was spelled that way, never having read it on paper.
Given that it's listed as being from Australian English, I might have spelt it the same way. It wouldn't seem much different than what they do with their vowels in other places. ;-)
It's a nifty word, thanks for sharing!
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Those that do not like it, already know; those that do not know, approve it.
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Myanmar
The Burmese Civil War rumbles on, with rebel forces pulling back from Myawaddy on the Thai border, because apparently the Karen National Army and the Karen National Liberation Army don't get along. All the same, the map still isn't looking good for the central government, with attacks on all fronts, fighting on the outskirts of Mandalay, and the Arakan Army closing in on the regional capital of Sittwe. At this point the partition of the country into 5 or more states seems inevitable, which seems like it will be mostly a victory for traffickers of drugs, arms, and people, who can thrive in the chaos of a half dozen failed states. But hey, maybe one of these ethnic groups will thrive without the Bamar boot on their neck and end up building a successful and prosperous society. Here's hoping.
Did one of them demand to speak to the manager of the other? Or is this more of a Judean People’s Front vs. People’s Front of Judea type of feud?
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Hard to tell what the Chinese game plan is here. The partial ambition for their intervention in support of the rebels was to deal with the Chinese crime lords who were tolerated by the junta and who were involved in a lot of corruption, scamming, bribery, organized crime in China proper and harboring wanted Chinese fugitives that the CCP didn’t want to let disappear. But if the whole country collapses that problem will only get worse for the Chinese since absolute lawlessness will likely only allow for further criminal activity, make it easier to disappear and so on.
I think Ive played to much civ, but wouldnt it be a complete power move from China to intervene heavily and ensure a semi-vassal regime comes to power including rights to build navy bases and ports at the indian ocean and rail connections to china? It would have major impact on their situation if they could avoid the straight of Malaca and the island chains around them. Seems that in the current situation it would be an easy sell to intervene/heavily support some faction under a humanitarian pretext, and hard to see what the west could do. Maybe India going bonkers is the consideration? Maybe someone that knows more about the situation can answer?
Wikipedia suggests that, along with Russia, they’re the main suppliers for junta forces. Chinese support for rebel factions was the exception rather than the rule.
On the other hand, China has been pulling Myanmar into Belt and Road since before the coup.
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Under a worst-case scenario I would expect Chinese economic and political support and perhaps a limited military intervention to stabilize the Kachin and Shan statelets on their border as a buffer zone. There isn't any other country that would want to get involved, so they might even be able to get the UN to foot the bill for such an operation if they play their cards right.
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Ireland
Riot police have been called out to the small town of Newtownmountkennedy (population 2,800) in response to another protest outside a site which is soon to become an asylum centre. It got violent and the riot police charged the protesters after they set fire to a building on the outer portion of the site. It seems like most of the protesters/rioters have been pushed into an adjacent field, but police are still moving through the town and running into more angry locals.
Ballina had a ]far larger peaceful protest](https://x.com/Mick_O_Keeffe/status/1781727303283692017) a few days ago, it would be harder to shut this one down given how big the town is (c. 10,000) and how isolated it is.
It’s interesting. The thing that seems to be driving popular outrage against mass immigration in Ireland and Canada is that the government does it with a smile on its face, calls those who oppose it bigots, winks at them, then dares them to blink. Kind of like being patronized by an annoying teacher.
By contrast, politicians in Britain, America and Australia, which have the same migration situation but less monolithically progressive politics and media, will publicly say more should be done to control illegal immigration, stop the boats, it’s not right, it’s a crisis, propose some measures blah blah (I mean even Biden does this to some extent) but then actually do nothing. And in a way, that seems to stifle some of the dissent.
There has been some of this thing (rioting against migrant camps) in Britain, but proportionally it has been much, much rarer than in Ireland. And in Canada one senses even normal centrists are getting increasingly angry about their own situation. I wonder if the Irish politicians will clock on and embrace the Tory policy of talking the talk on migration and then just not doing anything about it (or indeed increasing it further).
Right, there is no 'respectable conservative' establishment to funnel the energy of Irish right wingers through, the two wings of these protests are the more moderate 'We don't want them here (in this particular village)' accompanied by some complaints about how a big increase in population will strain GPs, policing, harm tourism etc, and 'We don't want them here, deport them'. The most respectable opposition you'll get are instances like this fairly satisfying grilling of the Minister for Justice.
Fine Gael are supposed to be the closest thing we have to the Tories, but as long as they continue to call people bigots this is just what leftists say not what right wingers think.
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This seems to work across the west, across different topics. Here in Germany we regularly have even greens occasionally admitting the struggles to get the latest immigration waves integrated, that our social system is buckling and that we need to do something. But any policy that has any chance of actually reducing immigration levels is stridently opposed, the "hardest" option on the table seems to be to crack down on crime but that doesn't actually solve the large numbers of social benefits recipients, where the only solution seems to be "support them more, hopefully they'll get a job this time". In science, people are willing to admit that standards in the soft sciences are low and that something needs to be done, but actually firing anybody is apparently impossible (and admitting that they're very biased as well and take advantage of the low standards to advance their own political agenda is usually denied strongly as well).
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