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PaperclipPerfector  9mo ago (text post)   29483 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of March 4, 2024

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Murder rates are now below 90s levels since 2023: https://www.axios.com/2023/12/28/us-murder-violent-crime-rates-drop

Which sociopolitical norms and policies contributed to this massive achievement?

Lead free fuel?

We've had lead free fuel since what, the 80s? That won't explain a drop over the past few years.

Since 2023? You mean the last two months? I stand corrected.

Or did you mean that the recent rise in homicide rates has only taken us back to '97 so far, and we have room to grow before we hit the full '92 again?

It's all in the graph I posted.

2020-2022 had elevated homicide rates and 2023 was practically a normal year. If we're going to talk about the massive failures that led to the 2020-2022 spike then it's only fair to talk about the massive successes that led to 2023.

If we're going to talk about the massive failures that led to the 2020-2022 spike then it's only fair to talk about the massive successes that led to 2023.

That seems reasonable to me. What's your read on the causes of the 2020-2022 spike, and what do you think is bringing the numbers down again?

I think there has been a secular decline in violence since the 90s as OP mentioned. 2020-2022 were crazy years with a lot of unusual factors. I'd primarily blame covid lockdowns for driving people insane. The George Floyd riots played a big role too, but I think the reason they were so much worse than previous protests over similar killings is because of the lockdowns. Now, lockdowns are lifted and I think we are back to the secular decline.

I don't know exactly what factors are driving the secular decline, but I suspect they haven't gone anywhere.

I'd say improved medical care is a big part of it. A gunshot that would have killed you in the 80s now merely leaves you paraplegic.

Then we should consider that as the explanation for the 90s-era decline too.

Aging of the population alone should have resulted in a massive decline in murder rates. Then consider that, unlike the 1990s, everyone has a phone in their pocket to call 9/11 immediately after a shooting. Now add ubiquitous video games, porn, and other entertainment which keeps young men off the streets entirety.

With all that, murder rates should have plummeted to all-time lows.

But they haven't.

To me this, is proof that society is becoming more violent, mostly because the justice system no longer enforces the law as strictly as it used to.

"Society" isn't becoming more violent. You aren't pwning noobs /playing DnD and partaking in the ol' ultraviolence with your mates after recess. It's a specific group of people who are doing the murdering and raping disproportionately.

More violent over what time frame?

This is Britain, not the US, yet we can see a certain effect, crime went up despite all the CCTV, increased wealth and forensics now available to police: https://twitter.com/XiaoVilin99/status/1575943515460468736

https://twitter.com/XiaoVilin99/status/1576248677550940160

Or in the US, it's gone up since 1960 per capita, despite all the wealth, technology, aging and de-leading: https://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm

Or in the US, it's gone up since 1960 per capita, despite all the wealth, technology, aging and de-leading: https://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm

According to your source, violent crime per capita peaked in 1991 and has since fallen by 50%.

Yes but it's still gone up from 160 to 379. That it peaked at 759 is small consolation. That's from 2019, before the 2020 crime increase too.

If my portfolio goes from 100K to 220K, I'm still fairly happy, even if I peaked at 500K.

Yes but it's still gone up from 160 to 379. That it peaked at 759 is small consolation.

Consolation doesn't enter into it. It's a question of explanation.

That's from 2019, before the 2020 crime increase too.

And before the 2023 crime decrease.

Which sociopolitical norms and policies contributed to this massive achievement?

The return of policing.

I'm not aware of any return of policing. The guy above you also hasn't heard of it.

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