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PaperclipPerfector  11mo ago (text post)   26472 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of January 15, 2024

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The German anti-right is on a hair trigger because of the AfD's recent growth to the point where, if their polling numbers hold up in the upcoming state elections, it will no longer be possible to exclude them from all high offices as before.

Wait, I don't understand. The AfD's polling #1 in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg, but it's not polling more than Die Linke + SPD + CDU, and they already did a "Die Linke and CDU work out a confidence agreement" thing to keep the AfD out the last time Thuringia had an election. Are they fearing AfD will continue to gain to the point where it has an outright majority? Is someone threatening to break the cordon?

Presumably CDU wouldn't want to work with Linke any more than it absolutely is forced to, and the rise of Sahra Wagenknecht's party throws another spanner in the works?

I'm not 100% sure why, to be honest. Media and politics are panicking and sure enough, it might just be some drama put on to increase voter turnout or just to attract attention. Maybe it's even merely a performance intended to galvanize one's existing supporter base. Maybe it's just a hysterical feedback loop.

Under the assumption that the risk of the AfD winning a state election is real, I'd guess the following:

  1. The CDU has shown a reduced willingness to cooperate with the leftist parties since they went into opposition, and is much less enthusiastic when it comes to anti-right work. It's often said that their current Chairman, Merz, is "sharpening their conservative profile" in order to regain voters lost to the AfD. I'm guessing this also makes the CDU less of a trusted partner to the left. But I lack an inside perspective of how the parties work in the eastern states, so this is just speculation.
  2. The AfD's numbers are higher this time, and it affects several states at once. Even if the other parties band together, they need to do it three times over. And even if it works, they effectively subvert the will of a large part of the electorate, or at least that's how it'll feel to the AfD voters. On the one hand I'm sure that's an attractive prospect to the left, pissing in the nazis' cups, but on the other hand it'll give the AfD a lot to talk about in terms of how this democracy is eroding its legitimacy. It sure did the last time, and this one promises to be a far bigger affair.

Wagenknecht is probably enough of a wildcard to throw it out of whack.

Eh, not necessarily. I mean, I'm no lawyer or political expert - I don't actually know how it works in the nitty-gritty. What I look at is just how media and people around me act. And Wagenknecht doesn't really play any noticeable role in their fear of the AfD. But sure, when it actually comes to elections, she may have an effect.

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