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I don't know why people in this particular debate are so obsessed with intuiting the answers to empirical questions. It is not the case that nobody has ever tried to measure the sport performance related effects of gender transition. Here is a BMJ meta-analysis from 2021 of 24 different studies. What do they find? Basically what you'd expect. 1-2 years on HRT decreases strength related performance pretty substantially. The study subjects retained some advantage over cis women but were significantly worse than cis men.
And trans women tended to be less strong than average cis-men even pre-transition.
Anyway I think the whole discussion is kind of dumb. Different athletes have all kinds of different advantages due to biological features. Is there some level of biological advantage at which point intra-group competition becomes unfair? Is the advantage a top trans woman has over a top cis woman larger than the advantage Michael Phelps had over his fellow Olympians? One can't help but notice that no one was interested in banning people from competing in sports due to biological advantage until the discussion was about trans women.
No, it only appears like it to you because previously there was a consensus matching the status quo, so no one talked about it.
Banning men from women's sports was accepted wisdom, and no one felt any need to disagree, until trans women came around.
You don't see anyone interested in banning teachers from murdering students - because it's already illegal. If Catholic Teachers For Murderism suddenly started arguing they should be allowed to kill students, there would certainly be a lot of disagreement, and not because they're catholic.
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Weight classes. Age classes in sports leagues for children (under-11s, under-12s and so on). Separate divisions for wheelchair-bound marathonners and on-foot marathonners.
If you think it's unfair to pit a heavyweight against a flyweight, a 17-year-old against a 10-year-old, or someone who can roll down a hill against someone who has to use their own feet like a sucker - congratulations, you understand how female athletes feel when asked to compete against male athletes.
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Presumably men with interest in high-level athletic competition (in the women's division, but nevertheless) would be unlikely to actively refrain from building muscle, engage in disordered eating, and/or be athletically disinclined -- which one might suppose would tend to place them more in the 'non-significant' part of the strength loss range, were they in this study population.
(Trying to apply a population level metastudy to a freakish subpopulation (high-level athletes, not transpeople) is probably a mistake, IOW)
On a personal note, I have one bicep much smaller than the other due to surgery related to a horrible accident a long time ago. With physio etc the strength difference between the two arms is indeed minimal -- but the surgeon at the time warned me that while I should make every effort to rebuild strength, the arms would probably never 'match' in terms of muscle size. This was 30 years ago, so 'LBM != strength' does not seem like a novel concept to the medical community. I wonder why the reviewers at the BMJ would not point this out to an author trying to elide the difference?
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On the contrary; plenty of people were banned from competing in sports due to biological advantage before trans women were even an issue. They were just called "men" and they were banned from women's leagues.
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