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What is the future of Israel?
Progressive leftists these days are Anti-Israel, and this sentiment is only likely more to spread. With the South Africa apartheid comparison looming, Im guessing that Israel will eventually be sanctioned by the United States and that this is an unavoidable outcome. Dont believe me? The Anti-Israel sentiment on the internet has been astounding, and even once the Gaza war flares down, there will always possibility be a flare up in violence in the West Bank. If I had to guess, in 20 years, a progressive candidate will be either talking or enacting sanctions against Israel.
So lets go into how Israel will change in the future, and what it might possibly do.
Israeli demographics are interesting. Some background. Israel is principally divided into two groups of Jews. Ashkenazi(European) and Mizrachi(Middle Eastern). About half of Israeli Jews are of Ashkenazi descent, while the other half is Mizarahi. There is significant intermarriage, so the lines are now blurred. Israel is also split along religious lines, with around 13% of israeli Jews being Ultra Orthodox, with the remainder being either secular or traditional. Israel birthrates are high. The average birthrate per woman is 3 in Israel, and its trending upwards. Thats the highest in the Western world. Its trending upwards in all demographics, except the Ultra-Orthodox, whose birthrate has trended downwards to 6.8-6.6 kids per woman.
By 2050, a third of Israeli Jews will be Ultra-Orthodox, up from the 13% they are now. By some estimates, by 2060 they will make up half of Israeli Jews.
Israeli Ultra-Orthodox primarily vote for United Torah Judaism, a union of Haredi Degel HaTorah and Hasidic Agudat Israel. A majority of Israeli ultra orthodox are Ashkenazi, but there is a minority that is Mizrahi. The Mizrahi minority votes for Shas. Shas usually gets more seats than United Torah Judaism, why? Because many Shas voters arent ultra orthodox, but rather traditional and religious Mizrahi Jews. Shas functions as a Mizrahi Jew interest party. Mizrahi Jews have tended to be more religious on average than Ashkenazi. Saying all this, there is actually a third group of "Ultra Orthodox" who are growing rapidly.
They are called Chardal. Chardal are ultra orthodox who are religious zionist. Religious Zionism is the ideology that believes all of the West Bank should be under Israeli control, they are big in the Israeli settler movement. Traditionally, Ultra Orthodox Jews are Non Zionist, not believing in a Jewish state or being maximalist in regards to territory. While this is still true for United Torah Judaism, it is no longer true for Shas, which is now Zionist.
Chardal are the most right wing. Shas is firmly right wing. United Torah judaism is middle of the road, and is open to siding with the left and center, depending on the Rabbis who lead them opinion.
The reason I make such a big point about Ultra Orthodox, is that they are the future of Israel. Israel will only get more religious, and more right wing. Even normal non ultra orthodox right wing voters, have more children then secular leftists.
Lets say the Israel Palestinian conflict remains unsolved in 20 years. Israel is likely to face economic sanctions, in the vein of either South Africa or Russia. Based off demographics, Im skeptical that sanctions will convince a religious and right population to change course. Israel is a populist ethnic democracy, its govt is responsive to its voter base, and I dont think that will change.
In 20 years, we can expect a multitude of geopolitical changes. First, oil's importance in the world economy will decline. The power of Gulf Arab states will be lessened. Two, I think the US and China will decouple even more so economically, in an effort to prevent Chinas rise. I do not think it will work. China has a decreasing population, but the unknown factor is AI. Advances in AI are likely to hit the upper middle technological class hardest and reduce amount of jobs. I believe China will whether the shrinkage of its population, decently in my opinion. There will be pain, but not instability. Three, Russia is unlikely to get unsanctioned by the West. Russia invading Ukraine was a no go for Europe and America. Conquering territory has made Russia a pariah for a generation, unless they give it back, which they wont, the economic sanctions on Russia will likely not dissipate. Russia will also, not collapse. The Russian economy had mostly survived fine under sanctions with some pain, and most corporations that were stationed there left their infrastructure there. That infrastructure is being run, and it seems most Russian citizens(or at least in Moscow and St petersburg) have access to most of the same goods that they had before, with only some shortages.
My bet is, that if Israel is sanctioned in 20 years, it will reorient to China and Russia as major trade partners and allies. China is already one of Israels biggest trade partners. They mostly dont care about human rights, and domestic political considerations for humanitarian foreign policy are basically non existent. Russia will be similar. Both economies will likely be decoupled from America in 20 years, to some degree or another.
Israel is an entirely export and manufacturing driven economy, with little raw resources. The Ultra-Orthodox and Right wing sentiment(as in Anti-Two state solution sentiment) is growing. If israel is sanctioned by the West, it is likely Israel would expropriate the infrastructure that globalized trade and companies have left in it to survive. Israel will also likely start to receive most of its raw materials from Russia, and subsidiary and secondary materials for manufacturing from China or India.
The middle east with the decline of oil, will be a poor and war torn place...more so than it is already. Climate change will only make things worse and more unlivable. What does this mean for Israel?
Lets look at the middle east. Egypt is apparently, not doing well economic wise even though its indicators say its growing. Dictator El Sisi has favored military owned businesses to push out private industry. There is increased spending on inefficient infrastructure projects like the new capital. Industrial and agricultural capacities in Egypt are inefficient relative to population. With the construction of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance dam, Egypt's nile river is threatened with significantly decreased water flow. This will impact industrial and agricultural capacity further and could lead to war with Ethiopia, which would weaken Egypt.
Lebanon is suffering from chronic brain drain and corruption. The Lebanese Syrian and Palestinian populations of refugees makes up almost 2 million people out of 5.6 million. That is a third of the country. Syria is a failed state that will not be able to attract industry in the future, as it will take some time to recover from the Civil War. Jordan is the only economy of the Levant Arab states doing somewhat well. And it is having a hard time managing its Syrian refugee population, which is numerous
Here is their relevance to Israel's future.
If Israel is sanctioned by the West, I believe Israel will expel the Palestinians in Areas A and B into Jordan. Thats currently 3 million people, and it will expand into more.
None of Israels neighbors are doing well economically. Corruption, climate change, internal strife and refugees make them more prone to inefficient war machines and economies.
If Israel expels the Palestinians, there will be a regional war. Jordan, Syria, Egypt and Lebanon, the countries bordering Israel, will likely attack in some capacity. Israel will likely win, for a variety of reasons. It is a major arms manufacturer, being number 9 in the world and mostly self sufficient in terms of arms and missiles and tanks and drones, with it mainly being reliant on United States for aircraft parts.
The Levant Arab states will not commit to many troops to try to attack Israel for fear of nuclear weapons that Israel has. There will be mostly token forces to fight Israel to not risk Israel using a nuclear bomb.
I cant help but feel while my analysis is detailed and somewhat knowledgeable, that it is lacking somehow. Could anyone offer their insight?
I find it unlikely the US, or even other NATO countries, would ever actually sanction Israel. However, for the sake of argument, lets say something does happen that reduced economic and political ties between the West and Israel. While this may lead to increased ties with Russia or China, the more likely result would be significant growth in Israel's already substantial relationship with India.
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While the SJWs are generally very vocal in taking the side of Palestine, they are not representative of the overall US voters. In a decade, that cause might not be en vogue any more.
As others have pointed out, being Ultra-Orthodox is not inherited at 100%.
Finally, you can't expel people unless there is a country willing to take them, which Israel's neighbors clearly are not.
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I think you’re leaving out a very important factor when discussing the rise of the ultra-orthodox- they don’t work. Having a third and then half of your population on welfare is a very bad thing and Israel will hit economic problems that way fast. And Russia and China might be happy to sell them things, but they’re not going to issue gigantic loans or big cash handouts.
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oh it's this guy again
Don't make these kind of comments.
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If we are following demographics that closely ... once they have shifted in Israel won't the US will be a predominantly Mormon and Quaker country?
I have strong doubts about demographics as destiny. I don't think these religious communities with high birth rates are always all that great about holding onto all their kids.
There is also probably an effect over time that as these wayward kids bleedoff into the mainstream they create enclaves of ex-[minority religions], and it becomes even easier for future wayward kids to leave.
Mormon TFR is already dropping. Amish TFR is huge and seems more stable, but from such a low starting point it'll still be a couple centuries before they overtake the rest of the US even if outconversion is negligible and nothing changes.
What's the Malthusian limit on arable land owned by Amish communities? How often do they buy more?
I've wondered this myself! The 19th and much of the 20th century was marked by everybody and their uncle fleeing the job of "farmer", as productivity increases caused food prices (relative to labor and land) to plummet faster than the increase. If you're Amish and you can't even take advantage of the mechanization component of that productivity increase, how do you keep up? They're apparently opted out of the Social Security system, and they've opted out of a lot of the costs and luxuries of modernity, but they still pay property taxes.
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I think you've got this very wrong. US foreign policy towards Israel won't change at all. Not one bit. Anti-Israel sentiment periodically rises, the pro-Hamas/pr-Palestinian protest cycle is very old indeed - decades and decades old. Did the previous protest cycles change US foreign policy towards Israel? No.
This is like suggesting birth control won't change sex patterns, the genie is out baby. Re-check the affinity to Israel by age group
It doesn't matter, though. Young people don't vote. Who knows what their opinions will be when they're settled and married with kids and regularly voting.
Even if public opinion was vastly anti-Israel, that still wouldn't change anything - during the Iraq war the public was massively anti-war, that changed absolutely nothing. The Senate and the Executive are where foreign policy outcomes live, and those gears take a long, long time to turn. US foreign policy is remarkably stable from administration to administration, and this is partly by design. The people in charge know that in a few more months there'll be something else for young people to march around yelling about, perhaps a white cop will kill a black guy again or something...but something will take its place, and the youth will be bored of screaming about a country they can't point to on a map once The New Thing catches their eye. It just doesn't matter.
Well no, sometimes some things do matter.
Sure, I just don't see it in this case. Support for Palestinian terrorism has been a perennial hobby among young leftists - this most recent outpouring of support is nothing new. In the '60s and '70s many leftist groups had much stronger ties to Palestinian terrorism - Baader Meinhof gang even went down to train with them. In the end it all fizzled out, and I see no reason a lesser wave that doesn't involve the material commitment seen in prior decades won't also fizzle out.
Israel is an incredibly important ally of the US, they could glass Gaza and we'd still support them - perhaps with a wrap on the knuckles, but no more than that.
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US Pro-Israel sentiment has usually been very strong. When has it been ever as weak as it currently is?
Plus the US is not currently reliant on foreign sources of oil. There isnt much reason for the US to support Israel
I could be convinced if you could show me 40 years of polling results on Israel WRT youth sentiment, it'd be better by far if you could dive into how those numbers changed during times of conflict.
The US has never been Israel's ally because of oil, Israel is important because it's part of our containment strategy towards Iran (among other things).
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Probably the Hanania argument. Which I think I’ve put out there too but he put it together better.
Jews are 17% of US billionaires, 33% of Nobels, 15/20 of the largest donors in the 2020 election, 7.5% of Senate/House, current POTUS (joking about Blinken), the vice first-man, 2/7 of the Supreme Court.
https://www.richardhanania.com/p/the-great-jewish-realignment-of-2023
Quoting GOT is a bit midtwit but “Power is Power”. Jews got it. Bunch of Ivy League kids not necessarily power - maybe some day.
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While I am not sure about the main body of your argument, I think that you are incredibly wrong on the China AI prediction and drastically wrong on the oil prediction. I've got skin in the game and am quite long on oil futures, specifically exploration and drilling. Whether you like it or not, fossil fuels are currently the lifeblood of civilization and we do not have any appreciable replacements - even if it could conceivably replace energy needs, which it won't, especially given the modernization, buildout and investment in Mexico, India, and a growing second world, hydrocarbons are used to make goddamn everything from aspirin to solar panels. The current dip in oil prices and subsequent resurgence of unsteadiness in the ME is caused more by US fracking than anything else, making them energy-independent and less interested in ME politics as a result. The smarter players in the ME know this and have tried their best to diversify their economies with mixed results, or alternatively are looking to allow countries to purchase oil in currencies other than USD (it was barely covered in the news but the UAE agreed to let China purchase oil with RMB recently).
China is already suffering because of a massive deficit in professional or service jobs. AI will make that worse. It's not an instability problem - the Party can levy pretty much everything under the sun to make sure they stay in power - but their internal governance, domestic market and stock market is quite weak and will take at least six to eight years to recover, let alone supercede their growth for the last decade. Their foreign policy is the wild card: it depends entirely on BRICS and how that shakes out. BRICS is considered a joke or a threat depending on who you talk to, the truth is probably somewhere in between. None of the BRICS nation really trust or like each other, they just want to form an alternative non-American power bloc in case America decides they don't like them all that much one day after a change in presidency.
I also think that progressive/liberal blue America is an opposition based party. They are anti-Israel because team Red is nominally pro-Israel and support for Israel has been the unstated government line for decades. Given that Team Blue is more about stomping Team Red into the dirt and laughing as they die of opioids and despair than it is about anything else, I think that their care-o-meter about Israel is entirely limited to the extent that Team Red is for it.
Thank you for this. Economics is not my forte, I should have done more research before I spoke.
So oil will remain important in the middle east? What do you see as the benefit or demerit to China and Russia allying with the Israelis? The Israelis are the strongest power in the Levant.
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Russia has at least lukewarm relationships with Hamas, so I wouldn't be so sure about a russo-israeli alliance. Putin makes mouth noises about supporting Israel but it could really go either way.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Hamas_relations
The way I see it, the Russians pay lip service to the Palestinians but dont really care. The Israelis are the strongest power in the Levant, and Russia is hungry for allies and influence. Its why they cozy up to Iran.
Russia also lacks high tech and educated human capital. I could see the Israelis eventually becoming major aid to the Russians in terms of upgrading military tech, and high tech
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