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PaperclipPerfector  1yr ago (text post)   2645 thread views

Wellness Wednesday for November 8, 2023

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https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-skookumtree-pinetree-successfu?r=QmVuamFtaW5Ja3V0YQ

I made a prediction market about the Hock.

It's generally admirable to work towards a challenging goal, but I do hope he doesn't attempt it without thoroughly adequate preparation.

I have to say that I do not wish for Skookum to go kill himself in the Alaskan tundra, but I do find the evolution of “The Hock” highly entertaining. I only give him about a 10% chance of actually going through with his plan.

I personally find it very distasteful to bet on someone's dying. I hope earnestly and sincerely for his success.

The more people bet on his dying, the more accurate the estimate will be and the less likely he'll do it if it's too low. Hope won't help him.

It's Skookum the Hock guy himself - I don't find it distasteful. It's rather amusing to me, to be honest. The market has the Hock guy at 7 to 4 against...

DM me the day before you set out, I'll bother to make the account on Manifold so I can get some fake internet points.

Ah, it's in winter? Adieu skook. Seriously, don't do this. Go to donner lake, at least you can survive by eating your arms while you wait for the thaw.

People have camped in the area in the winter. I think he could do it, but when he talks about bringing skis, it worries me.

That poster is freaking incredible lmao. Awesome stuff.

Thanks - I made it myself, with a little bit of assistance from @SomeoneElse on Discord (who respects the Hock, but thinks it's stupid and doesn't recommend it). He suggested changing the position of some of the text.

What survival/outdoor experience do you have? If zero, or very little, I'm going to be hopefully one of many voices telling you not to do this. Did Chris McCandless teach us nothing?

The SSC/ACX discord has a whole bunch of memes about our very own Skook, he's notorious for his ad-Hock insanity well before he showed up here.

Assuming this one is original (or not), it still made me chuckle!

I figure it's like a gastrectomy. Gastrectomies are proven to help with weight loss, but have extreme negative side effects, and really their only purpose is to help you diet anyways. The Hock will be effective because training and getting outside of your comfort zone is always effective. The Hock itself--that is, putting yourself in a life-or-death situation--will accomplish basically nothing.

As far as whether he'll complete it, he seems to be taking preparation seriously. If he actually understands what he's getting himself into and is not autistic enough to go without GPS etc. I think he'll probably make it through.

and is not autistic enough to go without GPS etc.

I would hope! But he seems to value the lethal risk for its own sake...

I can't be bothered to make a Manifold account just for the sake of this market (even if it made me chortle) so I'm just going to verbally registered my "no".

The whole point of prediction markets is to predict more carefully than just saying offhand.

You think I'm aware of what Manifold is without getting that much? I'm simply too lazy to bother when it's something as profoundly stupid as the Hock!

I don't think any of us even know what the hock exactly is, so it's hard to say what completing it means.

I think he's going to make a post about it with more detail at some point.

That makes one of us.

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