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PaperclipPerfector  1yr ago (text post)   25228 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of October 30, 2023

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I could be because people are poorer in real terms than they used to be.

The inflation that already happened is still here and inflation remains elevated. More than that interest rates are way up which vastly increases people's housing cost (which usually amounts to their primary expense). People have gotten raises but they don't compensate for inflation or the consequences of interest rate hikes.

All taken together people are poorer, more uncertain about the future and a lot of things just feel scary.

Real incomes have gone up, not down. Inflation was high but there was also a corresponding increase in wages. Total wealth is also up.

Which doesn't compensate? Wage increases were some 6% 2022 compared to about 9.5% inflation, in 2023 were looking at 5% wage increases and 4% inflation.

Maybe people are so used to increasing wages and stagnant prices that even mild decreases or wages and prices keeping track feels like a decline?

Both average real incomes and real disposable incomes have beat inflation.

Maybe people are so used to increasing wages and stagnant prices that even mild decreases or wages and prices keeping track feels like a decline?

Perhaps, although the second point of the post was that the noticing is inexplicably much, much more severe by the party not occupying the White House.

Total wealth is also up.

From the post:

This translates to an increase in wealth of about $51,800 for the median American household over three years. Not bad! Median family net worth is now about $192,900.

Man, I'm really enjoying the increase in wealth that comes from a spiked monetary supply that added a hundred grand to the estimated price of my house. With all that extra net worth, I can do really cool things, like have basically zero opportunity to move in the near future because houses cost twice as much to finance as they did a couple years ago!

Seriously though, this stuff just comes across as incredibly tone deaf. Listing "wealth" in nominal dollars when the value of dollars is down substantially is silly. Treating an increase in the price of houses as wealth-building is the kind of thing only a dishonest economist could love. Ignoring that this extra $52K in net worth is offset by an enormous runup in government debt is short-sighted.

You don't need to buy a house to move. You are actually richer if your house increases in value.

My house increasing substantially in value actually makes me slightly poorer. My city decided they needed to perform an off cycle property tax evaluation, so my taxes have now gone up by a noticeable amount.

You can sell your house and have more wealth than before your house increased in value.

Equity in your house is only barely wealth. Sure, when you die or laughs retire, you might cash out. Or you could actually pay off the mortgage in 30 years, right before you retire. Maybe you can pay a variable rate starting at ~9% to access that "wealth". But for most people, all that extra "wealth" does for them is increase their property taxes.

HELOCs are a thing that let you turn home equity into actual cash.

Maybe you can pay a variable rate starting at ~9% to access that "wealth".

Nobody reads anymore do they?

why read when you can dunk on the outgroup and cover yourself in glory.

This is a great example of the above post because in fact people are much wealthier (adjusting for inflation) and have higher incomes (adjusting for inflation) all across the income distribution.

https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1714673518229549380

And yet the personal savings rate is down, to a historical low. Consumer debt is up.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/personal-savings

https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.html

This would seem contradictory. If people are wealthier why are they saving less and financing more?

Look at your own damn graph! The precipitous fall in debt shown on the second graph comes in... 2008. Does this not perhaps tell us that taking rising debt as a measure of a bad economy is not a good idea?

Different question. Nobody contests that 2008-2010 was a 'bad economy' (we can also look an unemployment rates to get an inkling).

The issue here is that many metrics are currently showing a 'good' economy and yet, for individuals with bills to pay and debts to service, they might not have a positive outlook based on their actual material circumstances.

Do you note how debt rates were rising as we headed into 2008. That is to say, could we interpret rising debt as sign of a pending recession/correction?

Or, more precisely, what do you think happens when millions of people are overleveraged and then many of them default on debt and/or go bankrupt (or literal banks go out of business) at the same time?

Why isn't that happening currently?

could we interpret rising debt as sign of a pending recession/correction?

I wouldn't say so, but either way this is irrelevant, because it's a completely different question to whether the economy is 'good' or not. Unless you think people (i.e. Republicans) are rating the economy as poor because they've looked at the FRED charts and decided we're headed for another 2008.

Look at it this way. Even retrospectively, most people would describe the early 2000s as good economic times, no?

I wouldn't say so, but either way this is irrelevant, because it's a completely different question to whether the economy is 'good' or not.

I don't think it's irrelevant. The economy isn't just a snapshot, it's a trendline with predictive value. We've got an uptick in the trendline right now, but is it a dead cat bounce or actually indicative of healthy and sustainable economic growth.

Here's the fed in July 2007, after the fuse on the bomb was lit.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/mpr_20070718_part1.htm#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20economy%20generally%20performed,4%2D1%2F2%20percent.

Well if you look at the graph from up the thread, it shows that debt is levelling off.

In any case, would you disagree that the early 2000s were a 'good economy'.

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