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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   13351 thread views

Israel-Gaza Megathread #3

This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.

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And even Zelensky has shut his mouth lately. Could be that the tide is turning in favor of russia.

Could be that the tide is turning in favor of russia.

We do not know.

We (for value of "we" consisting of open source users) can have good idea about Russian overall strength and losses, because Russia is decrepit gangster shithole open and free society that is incapable of keeping secrets and leakes info like sieve.

In contrast, Ukraine is black hole, fully proficient in OPSEC. Very little info comes out, as Teixeira leaks show, even Pentagon relies on official Ukrainian (and Oryx) data in their analysis.

Whatever you say about SBU, they know their work, they are true heirs of Cheka, NKVD and KGB, they deserve the Dzerzhinsky statue kept by Petrov and Boshirov clown team.

edit: link

“It’s a day that ends in Y, could be the tide turning in favor of Russia!”

Do you mean the tide of the war, or the tide of public opinion?

"Tide of public opinion" was creation of mass media that decided in Feb 2022 to play up this war as much as possible (instead of ignoring it like, for example, contemporary war in Ethiopia)

We can imagine alternate world where, on February 24, newspapers of record dedicated front pages to latest controversy about drag queens and somewhere on corner of page six was report:

KIEV: Today, Russian forces crossed border of Ukraine in territory disputed between Russia and Ukraine.

Situation is unclear, some local sources report about fights between Russian army and Ukrainian militias.

Russian government says it is involved in limited operation against Jewish Nazi Satanist homosexual terrorists based in disputed territory, and claims it holds no aggressive intent against Ukraine.

Ukrainian government denies presence of Jewish Nazi Satanist homosexual terrorists on Ukraine soil and denounces Russian actions as aggression against Ukraine.

World leaders call for cease-fire and negotiations between all involved parties.

In this world, only people who would be watching Ukraine would be people with relatives in the area and OSINT/war fans, "public opinion" would have different concerns.

I dunno. I kind of like it when Russia doesn’t get what it wants. Not particularly strongly, but more than I care about miscellaneous civil wars. Imagine how the Westerners who actually lived through the Cold War might feel.

Tide of public opinion" was creation of mass media that decided in Feb 2022 to play up this war as much as possible

Alternatively, "major historical enemy catastrophically fails to invade tiny neighbor" doesn't require a conspiracy to be a captivating news story.

I don't think the tide of public opinion can turn for Russia, but there is a recess from the high tide a year ago. And for the war - I have long stated that it is competition who will lose faster. Could as well be Ukraine. Especially when Ukrainian men can just have to get to one of the borders to be free of subscription

I am pretty sure that it is rather effect of media focusing less on that topic.

Indeed. I heavily doubt Zelensky is speaking less; he's a politician after all, and they never shut up. But they rely on other people to put their words in front of your eyes.

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