Eetan
1hr ago
Sure, nothing wrong with "might makes right" world order ... as you are 100% certain that you have the might, that you really wield the biggest club.
Eetan
4hr ago
Who decided who is "nation" deserving of self determination?
In practice, your ability to find great power generous uncle who supports your cause diplomatically/militarily decides the issue.
There is no supreme commission of linguistic experts that examines dialects spoken in Trashcanistan/Carbombistan border zone and scientifically chooses where the true border should be.
Eetan
5hr ago
Americans have to swallow their pride and learn from most successful prison abolition movement of our time. It can be done.
Yea, the Wagner solution is the solution America needs. American prisoners yearn to get out of cage, American army yearns for patriotic volunteers, Iran yearns for freedom and democracy. Everyone can win.
Eetan
5hr ago
Obvious divine plan in action. God hates America, wants to destroy it utterly and The Orange Man is His chosen tool of chastisement.
Eetan
5hr ago
Yea, sacrificing your life to change history by *redacting * an irreplaceable person is the steelman argument for individual (or small group) action.
(Boron nitride cutting tool answer to this steelman is: If your enemy cause relies on life of single person, then it is historically doomed anyway. Every great man is mortal and if without him his forces disperse, it is going to happen sooner or later. Just eat popcorn, watch and wait.)
Anyway, truely irreplaceable people are very rare. In the heyday of the propaganda of the deed many royals, presidents and ministers fell with no noticeable effect.
(Was Charles Kirk really one of the rare persons? Too early to say.)
Eetan
6hr ago
That shit was so cinematic I am in the pre-I Want To Believe phase
Yes, every fan of Donald Trump wants to believe that there was no shoot and no shooter, only body of patsy deposited on the roof and ear scratched by razor shard hidden under orange finger nail. Patriots are in control, all goes according to genius 666D plan, nothing could be derailed by random lone gunman.
BTW, this is one of leading Israeli conspiracy theories regarding death of Yitzhak Rabin.
It was inside job organized by Rabin himself, nothing like failed assassination attempt to prop up your falling poll numbers. Yigal Amir was recruited as patsy and given gun with blank ammo, but outsmarted his handlers and swapped them for real bullets. Oopsie.
The war is coming home, as people predicted and feared.
The perpetrator of Michigan Temple Israel attack, the winner of Most Ineffective Terrorist of the Week prize (so far), was, unlike perpetrators of Old Dominion University attack and Buford's Backyard Beer Garden attack directly connected to the current war - he was Lebanese whose family was killed in recent Israeli bombing.
Results: one broken door, one injured security guard, thirty law enforcement officers suffering from smoke inhalation and probably marginal tens of million more in cash and weapons going to Israel. One million Lebanese who were expelled from their homes by Israel will still be never let back.
Reminder 1: Highly trained Iranian sleeper cells exist only in Tom Clancy novels.
Reminder 2: Both Epic Goat Beard Man and cutting edge science are right, individual terrorism does not work, even in the rare cases when it works.
Want to change the world? Organize, educate and agitate both elite human capital and the masses, today you can do it from your comfy room. One persistent shitposter can have bigger effect than all lone wolf shooters and bombers combined.
edit: links linked properly
Eetan
2d ago
The post-1945 nuclear club of nations has always been pretty exclusive. I can't think of any example where a nuclear-armed nation has deliberately aided a non-armed nation's nuclear weapons development programs, even between otherwise allied states (lots of spycraft, though).
Well, it depends where you draw the line, where mere carelessness ends and "deliberate aid" begins.
A later investigation was conducted by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (successor to the AEC) regarding an additional 198 pounds (90 kg) of uranium found to be missing between 1974 and 1976, after the plant had been purchased by Babcock & Wilcox and Shapiro was no longer associated with the company. That investigation found that more than 110 pounds (50 kg) of it could be accounted for by what was called "previously unidentified and undocumented loss mechanisms", including "contamination of workers' clothes, losses from scrubber systems, material embedded in the flooring, and residual deposits in the processing equipment.
Eetan
2d ago
Correction:
The starting postulate of modern international law is: "Hitler was bad, use any means necessary to stop any future Hitler. Who is Hitler? We decide who is Hitler."
Eetan
2d ago
Because American propaganda and self image is (so far) "we are heroes fighting for truth and justice".
Tell Iranians or Russians "you are not good guys, you are brutish murdering bastards" and they will laugh.
Stings that will hurt would be "You are not world second super power, you are Africa tier rotting shithole living out of real super power dwindling inheritance" or "You are fake Muslims, worse than outright infidels, what is happening to you is divine judgement for your sins, your only future is hell fire".
Eetan
2d ago
You can take man out of world second super power, but you cannot take world second super power out of man.
Eetan
2d ago
There are Panicans on X and some informed anti-Panicans, but the average voter just doesn't seem to care very much at this point. With that said, what's your prediction? Does this blow over without the average voter taking much notice?
TPTB found out that propagandizing ordinary plebes is unnecessary distraction, that the war machine can work regardless of plebe "support" or "approval".
We will see if they are right.
Does this blow over without the average voter taking much notice?
Unless the situation directly touches average voter's wallet. Then all bets are off.
More to the point. It's remarkable that there's so little discussion of contemporary historical events on here.
Easy to understand - the current world historical habbenings are not only hopelessly grim but also hopelessly stupid.
Overall, too much downer for debate. Even most rational (and rational adjacent) folks do not like being reminded that their fate ultimately hangs on fat orange finger messing with buttons.
Could someone like Pete be imaginable as the Secretary of War – no, Defense – in 2023? 2019, even? 2016? It looks as if the politically dominant culture of the United States changed overnight. Does everyone just like it too much to find the change worth commenting on?
This culture was always there, now it is fully in the open.
Remember GWOT, remember the sudden jump of official line from "We do not torture, we are good guys" to "Yes we torture, and we are rather good at it. America number one! YEE-HAW!"
Eetan
3d ago
Yes, (solved) murders are overwhelmingly low IQ phenomenon.
Is it because smart people are more moral, or because the perk of being smart is ability to find out easier solution to your problems than murder?
Eetan
3d ago
How to Kill Correctly And With Style
Well, it depends where you are.
For example, if you live in drug infested town or neighborhood where deaths by overdose are common, just invite the prospective victim to shoot drugs with you, and inject him with lethal dose of fent.
Just another overdose, just another number in the grim tally. How many of these numbers are really unfortunate accidents, and how many are suicides or murders? No one knows, no one will ever care.
Eetan
3d ago
And really, they aren't even all that revolutionary in a classic sense, even if they say they want to burn down the system: by revealed preference they simply don't.
Revolution needs revolutionary situation - historically it was incompetent, internally split and massively discredited ruling class, unpopular (and losing) war, economic collapse thrusting the masses into desperate poverty.
Fortunately, we are in 2026, not in 1917 and no such things can happen today.
Eetan
3d ago
You can still be dedicated communist while believing that communism will win in far, distant future. It is hard, but not impossible.
warning: obscure nerd lore incoming
The canonical example is classic of Soviet science fiction, Andromeda by Ivan Yefremov.
Context: Soviet science fiction during Stalin's time was bound by "close limit" rule.
No daydreaming, no wild space fantasies churned by capitalist hacks as opiate for the working class, just describe scientific and technological breakthroughs that are coming in the near future.
Usual plot was: In 1946, heroic Soviet polar explorer gets lost and freezes solid in the arctic ice. Later, in communist future, he is discovered, thawed and revived into full health, and his old friends (in their young and vigorous 120's) get him into flying car and show him the wonderful communist world of 2026.
Andromeda is not like this.
It is utopian communist future, that happens to be far future. Geologic scale future, when all that is left from our civilization is black radioactive layer in the strata (and some mysterious artifacts).
It is clear why such work was problematic, even during the post-Stalin thaw when big K himself promised victory of communism in 1980.
Eetan
3d ago
The figure consists of homicides solved by formal white man's law, as opposed to ghetto street law.
How many people really get away with murder in such sense that they face no adverse consequences in their lifetime (excluding guilty conscience, if applicable) is unknown and unknowable.
Eetan
3d ago
As a side note, the evidence produced by mobile phones is fascinating to me. Some time in the last 10-20 years, it became nearly impossible to get away with murder or any other serious crime.
Not really, at least in the US.
The main exception being situations involving some gang-banger in the ghetto and law enforcement doesn't particularly care.
In the hood, you do not get away with anything for long. Friends of the deceased usually know well who did it, and prefer to deal with the perpetrator (and his friends) themselves. This is how old American self sufficient spirit looks like.
"Perfect murders" in classic detective stories style would be:
1/Victim dead, death recorded as due to natural cause, accident or suicide, no murder case opened.
2/Victim went missing, no missing case opened because, well, no one missed the victim.
How many of such cases are here is impossible to estimate.
Eetan
4d ago
In late-stage capitalism, none of that is true anymore.
"Late stage capitalism" is phrase born of Marxist revolutionary optimism/wishful thinking.
"Keep fighting, comrades! The clock is ticking, the bourgeois pig system is crumbling! The masses are waking up, the revolution is just around the corner! Trust the forces of history!"
No one wants to imagine that we are still in early stage of capitalism, and communism will finally win sometime in the 40th millenium.
Eetan
11d ago
Eetan
11d ago
In related news, meeting to select new Supreme Leader was targeted by Israeli strike. As if time for negotiation has ended, as if there are no plans to talk with Iran any more.
We know we should always trust the experts, but maybe these ones should be exception. Really, is it so hard to establish secure communication channel that precludes need to meeting in person? Especially in Near East, part of the world with ancient tradition of messenger pigeons?
And frankly, haven't we all started from this, with LessWrong and Scott gushing over the genius of the Ashkenazim, Eliezer dreaming of the eugenic Dath Ilani like himself, Gwern scheming to clone or embryo-select John von Neumann, others planning to have an army of them save the world from unaligned AGI?
Do not worry, the Chinese are aware of Ashkenazi super powers and are closing this gap too.
Eetan
11d ago
There are companies, deep state actors, and military generals that are more than happy to start a hot war with Iran anyone even if the strategic consequences for the US are negative.
If you are properly cold calculating Corrupt Corporate Executive of E.V.I.L.Inc you want state of cold war prolonged indefinitely (or at least till you retire).
You want to deliver small number of super weapons at extraordinary cost, replace them after few years with super-hyper weapons and then with super-hyper-duper weapons, without anyone ever using these marvels to find out whether they work as promised.
So US is coming for real.
Can they win despite all? According to our former mottizen @KulakRevolt, yes.
See CatGirl Plan for Epic Furry Victory.
If I can nitpick, CG overestimates the need for draft - Russian experience shows that big country can recruit rather large forces voluntarily just for cash.
Why drafting people when you can rev up printing press once more and promise millions in cash for signing up. Lots of disadvantaged Americans would take the offer as eagerly as Russians from rural areas.
Realistically, if there is any plan, it will will involve Azerbaijan moving from the north. The Azeri army was built up in the last 30 years by NATO and Israel exactly for this purpose, it was never about holy rocks of Artsakh/Karabakh.
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