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PaperclipPerfector  1yr ago (text post)   27055 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of September 25, 2023

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Newsome appoints someone who then has to win re-election in 2024. This person will probably be more progressive than Feinstein, but almost certainly not AOC level. He may or may not consider race and gender, but is probably going to pick someone who is a known quantity to California’s political machine.

I don't consider even AOC to be AOC level progressive. When it mattered the most she backed old-dems and didn't use the squad's leverage to get what progressive voices wanted. Her progressiveness is entirely performative, check out some video by Jimmy Dore, he dismantles her shit pretty thoroughly.

National Review was speculating that this was maybe a chance to punt Kamala off of the ticket and get her to agree to the essentially lifetime appointment to that Senate seat. Newsome appoints her, she steps down, Newsome takes her spot as the VP candidate.

Two white guys is very unlikely on the ticket, especially if one's replacing a black woman. Newsom's own advisors would tell him not to take that offer, especially because a 'moderate' business dem (which he is) has to win the black vote in the southern primaries, and the black vote is substantially black women in particular.

I can't see that happening, as pointed out it's a step backwards for her. Had she still been AG or some other position but not VP, sure. It's a plum seat and lifetime appointment. But not now she's First Female and First African/Indian-American VP and maybe hoping to go on for First Female and First Indian-American President.

Newsom as VP? I dunno. I suppose the ticket for 2028, depending on whether Biden wins the second term, could be Harris/Newsom but is that a dream team or a nightmare ticket?

Newsom would be a fool to attach himself to the sinking ship of a 2028 Kamala Dem nominee bid. He'll do better in the primaries than she will.

So what does that leave him with, if he intends to run for the big prize? Pick a different African-American woman as VP to make sure he locks in the black vote? Can you suggest any likely names if Kamala is out of the running?

Stacey Abrams, probably. There are a few no-name state level candidates. A not-white but also not-black woman is possible (but less likely).

Real talk, does he need a black woman? I'll grant you that the current woke mania wants one, but he probably doesn't need to. He could pick, say, Raphael Warnock(the black vote that he needs in lockstep to have a fighting chance in Georgia and North Carolina skews older, more female, and more religious than average).

He could pick a black man, but again, white women and feminists (and single white women are a huge Dem voter bloc) might be upset if there isn’t a woman on the ticket (“big step backwards”). Black women are also pretty particular, it’s unlikely they’d be as fully happy with say an Asian or Hispanic woman as with a black woman.

So what it comes down to is that for the foreseeable future, the default choice for a white male Democratic presidential candidate is going to be a black woman running mate.

I’m going out on a limb and saying there is no way that happens. You really piss off the black female vote as it is a clear demotion for Kamala.

If the democrats could find a way to dump Biden and Kamala, they would. The problem they have is they need to dump both in a way that it doesn’t look like they passing over Kamala.

Yeah, it'll be the same ticket next year unless something crazy happens. Harris will run in 2028 and lose in the primaries, possibly to Newsom or someone else. Then she'll enjoy a lucrative retirement on the speaking circuit.

By "win re-election", do you mean against another Democrat or against a Republican? I was under the impression that absent extremely-weird circumstances California was locked-down Democrat.

California has a "Jungle Primary" system for some positions where the top two primary vote receivers get on the ballot regardless of party. Dianne Feinstein (D) ran against Kevin de León (D) in 2018.

So a D vs D election is likely.

Against another democrat- appointed candidates lose primaries regularly. California electing a statewide Republican would be extremely weird.

The appointment does not supersede the usual election formalities. So there will be a primary and general election. It's just that, as you note, primary opponents will be discouraged and the general will reliably elect the Dem candidate. It's not like a Harlem Globetrotters game; they actually do have to hold a real election.

Keeping in mind that California is so Dem controlled and has a top-two general so the general would be between the top two candidates from the open primary and would both very likely be Dems.

Cali might have different dynamics, but as a general rule of thumb appointed senate seats have more competitive primaries in the party that the appointee belongs to than a typical incumbent seat.

Thanks, this is the kind of information I was looking for.

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