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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   35347 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of April 3, 2023

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These claims are hyperbolic, do you really think people will outright ban cars? The goal is to make public transit reasonable or possible for people to use, not destroy all the roads and cars people have.

This type of disingenuous argument about older folks is why I get so frustrated about density conversations.

you really think people will outright ban cars?

They'll ban new internal combustion engine vehicles and then crank up taxes on people who drive. They don't need to "outright ban" all cars. They will merely state that Pavlovian taxes [Edit: Pigouvian tax, the dangers of phone posting] are a good thing and due to global climate change ICE vehicles need to be phased out.

The European Union agreed to end the sale of new internal combustion engine (ICE) cars and SUVs by 2035

The California Air Resources Board on Thursday signed off on a sweeping plan requiring that by 2035, all new passenger cars and light trucks sold in the state be electric vehicles or other emissions-free models.

Given the limited quantities of relevant minerals, unless there is a world changing revolution in battery technology, electric cars are simply not going to replace ICE cars.

I'm sure that rich people will still be allowed to drive. So in some picky technical sense it will not be a outright ban. In a more relevant practical sense it will feel like a ban to the median person.

Thanks for backing up the concerns with sources, I agree these bans on ICE vehicles are pretty awful. I had no idea the environmental lobby had gotten so ridiculous.

I like to think these regulations will be made more realistic before actually being implemented, but I’ve been wrong before. We’ll have to see I suppose.

I am sold on electric being a better type of car, but I agree with you that this could be a tool for tyranny.

I'm sure that rich people will still be allowed to drive. So in some picky technical sense it will not be a outright ban

It's even a little more nuanced than that, as with electric vehicles you have to pay more for more range.

The masses will go on buses. Managers may be able to buy a car that fits their commute, but the range and charging limitations mean it's only good for the commute, you can't do anything else besides. So you've bought a more comfortable commute, but no freedom.

Upper management can get 50km range on top of that. A little freedom. And so on, and for the real rich we'll keep ICE vehicles that can just go wherever, whenever.

Given the limited quantities of relevant minerals, unless there is a world changing revolution in battery technology, electric cars are simply not going to replace ICE cars.

If a hundred ICE cars are replaced by one electric car, then I think many environmentalists will consider that an ideological victory. You've already quoted the EU's policy here. And that policy is why I take the EU to be a force of destruction in Europe - they will annihilate the German economy, and everything that depends on it, for the sake of wishful thinking. And by the time that is through, we can consider ourselves happy to keep one car in a hundred running.

I do hope to be wrong.

They will merely state that Pavlovian taxes are a good thing and due to global climate change ICE vehicles need to be phased out.

[emphasis mine -- Nybbler]

LOL, I think you mean "Pigouvian", but fair enough since the proposed taxes aren't that either, since the externality figures are just made up.

Given the limited quantities of relevant minerals, unless there is a world changing revolution in battery technology, electric cars are simply not going to replace ICE cars.

It's not just the minerals, it's the electricity. If you're not building fossil plants and you're not building nuclear and you're not building hydro, then no, you aren't going to be able to run your current grid plus the load from cars on renewables. What I expect will happen is ICE cars will be banned but there will be an exception for public transit vehicles, so effectively most people will be forced onto fuel-burning buses.

I’m not advocating for getting rid of cars entirely, I think anyone who wants to do so in the US is deranged. I’d be curious to read any arguments you can point to that call for that drastic of a move.

do you really think people will outright ban cars

Yes.

The goal is to make public transit reasonable or possible for people to use, not destroy all the roads and cars people have.

The goal is to make public transit better with respect to cars. Mostly this means making cars worse; you suggested increasing taxes to cover "externalities", which is one such way. There are many others.

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