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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   Edited 1yr ago   2738 thread views

Friday Fun Thread for January 6, 2023

Be advised: this thread is not for serious in-depth discussion of weighty topics (we have a link for that), this thread is not for anything Culture War related. This thread is for Fun. You got jokes? Share 'em. You got silly questions? Ask 'em.

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Small Sample Size Heuristics Thread

I'm looking for rules you use in your day to day, that are based on tiny, statistically useless observed sample sizes. Obviously probably coincidence, but at the same time you saw it multiple times and you can't stop thinking it must be true. Somewhere between the "If I had a nickel for every time... ; I'd have two nickels" meme and an actually valuable observation. Stuff where it's not enough to actually judge anything, but it is enough that it sticks out to you.

-- If someone drives a late model Nissan or Dodge* other than an SRT Challenger/Charger, Z, or maybe a Frontier; I subconsciously assume they're not all that bright, have poor financial literacy, or make impulsive decisions. Partly based on those brands having historically flexible credit terms for sub-prime customers (the Journey is a meme in /r/askcarsales), partly based on their generally lower quality than competitors, mostly based on experience.

-- If your wife is Asian-American and has a CCW, she's cheating on you.

-- I will never recommend to any woman that she date a man who drinks Pabst Blue Ribbon. Not always bad guys to hang out and drink with, but never marriage material.

-- White sportsball players who get called students of the game at the draft will almost always underperform in the pros. If you're already getting called out for brains over brawn in college, you just don't have the horsepower to hang with the big dogs, while the athletic freaks can often learn the unathletic lunchpail guys rarely get bigger.

-- Politicians that the media calls stupid will always outplay politicians the media calls brilliant. Dubya, Obama, Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, Hillary and Bill Clinton, Joe Biden. The list goes on and on.

What are yours?

*Excluding Ram Trucks, which were split off as a brand anyway circa the recession era Chrysler issues. I understand those are lovely, though I've never owned one.

Not white but I’ve been keeping an eye on Thomas Booker in terms of students of the game. He could have held his own as an NFL D-line coach coming out of Stanford at 22. Was only a fifth-round pick, so the Texans’ expectations weren’t more than rotational player. Also, guys that play as a 4/4i tend to do the dirty work so their teammates can put up stats. But rooting for him to develop.

Is hockey exempted because it’s mostly white? If not, when Kirill Kaprizov was drafted he was seen as crafty and undersized. Turns out he’s sufficiently crafty to compensate.

Is hockey exempted because it’s mostly white?

I'm not familiar with Hockey or how it plays into it. I would probably expect the opposite: for Black or Mexican players to get overrated because the league desperately wants a minority player to point to. Generally speaking, I mentally downgrade my expectations for most white prospects in Basketball-Football-Baseball because the demand for white sports heroes has outstripped the supply for basically a century now if you count Boxing (which, ironically, came back around to a decent number of white champions just in time for it to become culturally irrelevant). The "student of the game" thing is just icing on the cake really, but it tracks as an "intangible" that people will hang on a player they value for emotional reasons.

Hockey has similar rules to soccer and baseball in terms of the field of play — there are minimum and maximum rink width and length requirements but not one, standardized official rink size. The NHL rinks as a whole skew toward the smaller end of those tolerances.

Bigger rinks favor speed and smaller rinks favor strength, not that both aren’t broadly useful. So, smaller players aren’t always given their due by NHL teams. The 5’10” Kaprizov wound up on the Wild’s radar when a flight delay prompted some of their scouts to check out a Metallurg Novokuznetsk game in which Kaprizov was playing given they were stuck in Russia for another night. He would go on to sign the largest contract extension for a second-year player in NHL history.

The only exception to the student of the game one, I can think of is probably Peyton Manning, depending on whether you count overall career or post season only.

Manning was still a highly-rated physical prospect relative to a pocket passer — 6’5”, 230 pounds and a legit pro arm as a young man.

Drew Brees would be a better shout. 6’0” and seen as a system QB at Purdue, which pushed him down into the second round.

An opposite sex clerk at the ice cream parlor will give you more ice cream than a same sex clerk. Works for both sexes. Dunno why, but it's been true in a large majority of cases I've observed.

Similarly, you want the same sex to serve you at the electronics store - all my guy friends complain women csrs treat them like they would rather get fired than have to serve them, and my girl friends complain that the men talk down to them.

Vicky, Vivian, violet... You're on to something, old chap.

If your wife is Asian-American and has a CCW, she's cheating on you.

This is the most mysterious one. Is it because she’s promiscuous and carrying in case her extramarital dates go wrong?

I have no idea, can't even speculate probable causation. Just something I've noticed. Every Asian girl I've known who carried a pistol was unfaithful.

If your wife is Asian-American and has a CCW, she's cheating on you.

What's a CCW? Concealed carry weapon? Close-combat weapon? Counter-clockwise something?

Concealed Carry Weapon. Used colloquially to refer to the act, the permit, the firearm itself.

Who is she cheating on you with? Someone from her Realtors' class?

My friend, if I ever marry a woman who is, was, or will ever be a realtor; please doxx me, find me, and put a bullet in the back of my head. Act of mercy.

If a Great Pyrenees is walking suspiciously while giving you side-eye she has something in her mouth

I think that's any dog, lol.

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