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Notes -
Submarines solved the first strike problem. During the cold war there were enough missiles in the water on both sides to guarantee severe retribution.
I understand it's somewhat an open secret that Russia's subs are confined to near-Russia and the US actively tracks them and can pre-emptively obliterate them the moment things get hot.
It doesn't really matter where the subs are if their missiles have worldwide reach, if you are just using them for second-strike.
I wouldn't necessarily bet that the US can flawlessly eliminate the entire deployed Russian SSBN fleet in their bastion behind the Russian ASW wall. I'm sure the US tries to track them but from what I understand Underwater Ain't Easy.
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This might be true but failing in doing this is entirely possible.
It's a pretty big gamble to think you can get all of them when even one can kill 50+ million Americans.
Less of a gamble when you have missile defense that could stop the first X return shots. Then it's just a matter of degrading the enemy's second strike force by 1-(X/#)%
The bigger all the numbers, the less of a gamble it is.
And that is why Russia sinking enormous resources into Ukrainian war, rather into strategic rocketry forces proves that they are not really worried about USA first strike.
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I'm saying that the US might feel like it can maneuver to make a first strike feasible.
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Yep. Add in that we almost certainly can’t get all the mobile launch trucks before they fire.
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