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naraburns  nihil supernum  2yr ago (text post)   Edited 2yr ago   5649 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for November 13, 2022

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

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Shouldn't the phrase "{low/high} {risk/reward}" also include {high/low probability} ?

Else buying lottery tickets sounds like a "low risk, high reward" good idea. Or is the risk/reward an expected value?

Modern risk theory holds that Risk = Likelihood (probability) x Consequence.

Probability is already factored into risk.

"In simple terms, risk is the possibility of something bad happening." - Wikipedia.

I don't know why I found that funny.

Ironically enough, its also the chance of good happening with a subset of risk theory called positive (opportunity) risk.

I'd define low risk high reward as synonymous colloquially with using the term Lottery ticket.

Like one might call a baseball team pursuing high upside lower level minor leaguers as "stocking up on lottery tickets."

Whether something is a good idea is kind of separate from whether it is low risk high reward. If you bring probability into it such that it must have a positive expected value, it doesn't really communicate anything beyond being a good idea.

The reward is typically an expected value, as far as I know. So the lottery is low risk, low reward because the likelihood of a payout is quite low.

Yeah brainfart on my side. Winning the lottery is low risk high reward, not buying a ticket

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