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Notes -
I've always been more skeptical of the singularity than the average mottizen -- not outright dismissive, but skeptical. I've become more confident in my skepticism over the past year after seeing the diminishing rate of progress in frontier models and the relatively disappointing launch of GPT-4.5. I feel more assured now that currently known techniques won't lead to AGI.
Not to say that there won't be impact to individual jobs and industries, of course. There are plainly people who find LLMs to be very useful even in their current state, and LLMs aren't going anywhere. But I don't think that o3 or even o4 or o5 will lead to a cataclysm.
The first 90% of the project takes the first 90% of the time, and the last 10% of the project takes the other 90% of the time.
Is there? GPT 4 was kind of a toy. The reasoner models are already vastly smarter than an average white. If they assemble them into agents, average or even mildly above average white guy or gal has no hope of having a secure job. Sure, it might take $50k in compute infra cost to replace one worker initially, but even Polacks in their native habitat are paid $12k a year and cost employer another $10k in taxes.
:____________________________
English: Czech
Pole = Polák
Poles = Poláci
..plural of Poles is ..derogatory in English ?
This got a report, though I don't think it's mod worthy.
Why single out whites? I'm pretty sure that current SOTA models, in the tasks they're competent at, outperform the average of any ethnic group. I can have far more interesting conversations with them than I can with a 105 IQ redditor.
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Oh, are we still making Polack jokes?
This didn't really read like a joke, more like yet another in your long, long series of low-effort, derogatory and antagonistic posts.
Your record is sufficiently long that you're really asking for a permaban, but since I was persuaded last time that my response to you was too harsh, and this was, as shitty posts go, fairly mild, I'm banning you for a week. But you are already on strike four.
For what it's worth, it did read like a joke to me, hinging on the incongruity between a dismissive term and actual labour costs.
Interesting topic, this 'tradition' of jokes - a relic; today, domestically, they track as innocent, too much self-confidence for them to be cutting. And even a while back, my grandfather had many tiny tomes full of these jokes. I do not remember them ever being construed as a serious matter. A lot more serious for emigrants, I imagine.
Come to think of it, the 'Polack' itself as a derogatory term barely registers, I'd likely be unaware of it if not for the '/pol/ack' twist (quite different in meaning, positive really).
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Same. The more new models come out and i test them the less worried i get. It seems to me that the current types of models will lead to modest to moderate productivity increases for most sectors and radical improvements for a few, having possibly catastrophic effects on in employment, like commercial art production and lowish level offshoring.
Perhaps I'm wrong or things will change but this is where my thoughts are converging. If things don't change then I don't think this will be the society wide transformation people hope/fear.
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