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PaperclipPerfector  14d ago (text post)   32665 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of March 24, 2025

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The next step would be test your model of the world on the stock market. Which can be humbling.

Short term the stock market isn't modeling what happens, it is modeling what people think is happening, or what people think people think is happening.

Long term you are dead.

Better to stick to sports gambling if you actually have some sort of prediction advantage. Shorter ROIs, actually clear outcomes.

In a related discussion I was having with two sports betting enthusiasts at work today, women's sports are actually fairly popular amoung dedicated sports gamblers as there is a belief that the bookmakers aren't as good at protecting the house advantage in women's sports for whatever reason and an informed, savvy better has a better chance of getting an edge. They also seem to think that more extreme outcomes (one team absolutely demolishing the other) are more likely in women's sports. They were specificaly discussing the WNBA and MMA.

Live betting is also a space where the books are behind the advanced modelers.

The required advantage to get ahead in sports gambling is pretty small, right? Just slightly above flipping a coin?

Most people say you need to be between 55% and 58% to turn a profit.

Its a very complicated balancing act. The bookmakers have to offer attractive bets to bring in the action, but at the same time making sure the "coin flip" lands they way they want it to ~51% of the time.

Depends on how big your bank roll is

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