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Notes -
These are not mutually incompatible claims.
No they're not. Not even half of marriages end in divorce and thats with the people divorcing often doing so multiple times.
It may well be that long marriages are less sexually fulfilling but that doesn't mean they're not fulfilling the needs of the people involved. Sex is hardly the only need and it's something that generally becomes less important as people age.
This figure necessarily is significantly lagging.
Do you have e.g. actuarial-table-style divorce data within the past five years? I'd love to see it if so - all I can find is raw rates which don't say much on their own.
Divorce rates have been trending down since the nineties, why would you expect that trend to reverse?
An addendum: I see many plausible pushes to underreport divorce stats, and very few plausible pushes to overreport divorce stats. And one common approach to misleading with statistics is precisely to publish (only) the subset of the statistical measures which agree with the outcome you want.
Hence: Do you have e.g. actuarial-table-style divorce data within the past five years?
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Marriage rates have also been trending down, and divorces tend to be frontloaded, i.e. higher rates earlier in a marriage.
All of this combines to make it absolutely possible that simultaneously:
a) Raw divorce rates per 1000 people per year have dropped.
b) People who marry young are more likely to get divorced.
This is the "raw rates which don't say much on their own" I mention in my prior comment.
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I probably shoud have rephrased it as "ONLY some sort of shackle". We have no disagreement.
Maybe. Its not as clear cut though. There's probably a convincing case that for >65 year olds polyamory/lemon parties is the optimal happiness strategy. They just aren't bothered enough to try.
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