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Culture War Roundup for the week of February 10, 2025

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About the assassination attempt: look, it's just clear to me that there is nothing necessarily surprising or conspiratorial about the Secret Service fucking up after successfully protecting one of the most hated figures in US history, who also constantly does outdoor rallies, for 10 years. It would be surprising if they didn't eventually fuck up.

As for your second paragraph, I think that you profoundly misunderstand where I am coming from. I have spent years regularly arguing against people who engage in anti-Trump hysteria. As recently as a few months ago, I was telling lib friends that their horror of Trump was overblown and misguided. I'm not some kind of crypto leftist who is here to convince people to hate Trump, for fuck's sake. I am telling you the truth, which is that until recently I thought Trump was part good and part bad but I felt he would be effectively contained by checks and balances, but I am now worried because I am beginning to see the checks and balances waver. You may agree with me, you may disagree with me, but the reality is that I am not making a bad faith argument. I am literally just telling you about the evolution of my political thought. A few months ago I really thought that Trump's second term would be a nothingburger, both because Trump's first term was a nothingburger and because I assumed that libs and leftists would put up more resistance than they actually are.

The idea that I "inexplicably trust" the media is absurd to me. I have spent years criticizing the media to anyone who will listen. If you assume that I am some slavish devotee of the media, you are just plain wrong. I hate and distrust the mainstream media, but that doesn't mean that I have to like Trumpism.

I am now worried because I am beginning to see the checks and balances waver.

What are two examples of actually illegal behavior that you think the checks and balances are wavering on?

About the assassination attempt: look, it's just clear to me that there is nothing necessarily surprising or conspiratorial about the Secret Service fucking up after successfully protecting one of the most hated figures in US history, who also constantly does outdoor rallies, for 10 years. It would be surprising if they didn't eventually fuck up.

"Eventually"?

Where are all the other assassination attempts that they caught? If some guy showing up with a rifle at all those rallies were some sort of regular occurrence, and this one retarded dude lucked out and slipped through, what you say would make sense -- but this is not the case.

They have one job, and the first chance they had to do it, they fucked it up. OR -- they've been doing their job OK, then one day they didn't.

I am telling you the truth, which is that until recently I thought Trump was part good and part bad but I felt he would be effectively contained by checks and balances, but I am now worried because I am beginning to see the checks and balances waver. You may agree with me, you may disagree with me

I do not believe you.

Where are all the other assassination attempts that they caught?

There was the second attempt two months later where the Secret Service caught that guy on the golf course.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Donald_Trump_in_Florida

And this list of other stories I don't remember even hearing half of:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Security_incidents_involving_Donald_Trump

11 incidents in 9 years.

11 incidents in 9 years.

Mostly unarmed crazy people with no ability to do actual harm -- you can't brush this off as 'oh bad luck, bound to happen eventually what with so much public speaking and so many attempts on his life' when the very first guy who came to a speech with a gun was able to get multiple shots in the near vicinity of Trump's brainstem.

They didn't eventually fuck up -- they fucked up on the first try.

I agree with you on the assassination attempt side: along with the various procedural faults and failures to analyze or punish the source of those procedural faults, the post-incident review has not gone well.

On the other...

June 8, 2023:

Anyway, I still don't know why I'm supposed to care so much which one of these two candidates wins. Biden would do some things to hurt democracy, would support Ukraine a bit more, would support Israel a bit less, and would yell at Russia more. Trump would do some things to hurt democracy, would support Ukraine a bit less, would support Israel a bit more, and would yell at China more. The economy would muddle along without either one being able to do much more than just cheerlead when it's good and shift blame when it's bad. Biden would make certain kinds of mouth noises about immigration through the southern border, Trump would make a different kind of noises. At the end of the day probably not much would change because the president has limited power over the issue and Americans like cheap burritos and construction work, and companies like to hire the people who make it possible.

Neither candidate is someone I could imagine ever voting for. Both parties deeply, fundamentally disgust me in different ways. Biden would make one group of annoying people online scream that the world is ending, Trump would make a different group of annoying people online scream that the world is ending. As before, the Internet outrage would overrepresent the kind of person who spends a lot of time online writing about politics and would fail to capture the fact that in the "real world", most Americans don't really care that much about politics.

The only way I can think of that either candidate could truly screw things up as president is by getting into a major war with Russia and/or China. And, while Trump's legacy in office is more peaceful than Biden's, the combination of Biden's restraint from actually directly intervening in Iran, Israel, or Ukraine and Trump's volatile chest-pounding, boomercon love of Israel / hate of Iran, and anti-China rhetoric leaves me not entirely convinced that Trump would actually be less likely to go to war. I do think Trump is probably a bit less likely to go to war, but it's not enough to make me want to go vote for him.

If Trump is somehow actually significantly leading in polls with the election a month away, despite the usual rioting and screaming about fascism from Dem-aligned news outlets that we'll probably see next year, we will be in for an interesting outcome though if Biden wins anyway. I doubt that it would be enough to make the True Trump Patriots (tm) actually get up off their couches and do anything with their gun collections other than post pictures of them online, but who knows.

October 11th, 2024:

I think that in reality if elected Trump would probably just spend all day tweeting and failing to implement his promises. However, to many Democrats it is almost as if Trump is a Lovecraftian god the mere mention of whom leads to insanity. Such Democrats view him as some sort of annihilating force the very presence of which in the universe warps and endangers the sane, wholesome building blocks of existence itself. Meanwhile I just see a fat old huckster sociopath who talks a lot of shit but is effectively restrained by checks and balances. Not a savory person, maybe even a rapist, pretty certainly a bad guy, but not some sort of fundamental essential threat to the entire being of American democracy or to sanity.

It is not that I do not believe in evil. But I do find it odd when liberals perceive demonic evil in Trump, yet make excuses for vicious violent criminals (at least, as a class if not always individually) who are enabled by Democrats' soft-on-crime policies.

Would Trump do many harmful things in office? I am sure. Harris would as well. Which one would do more, who knows? I do not see a clear-cut answer to that question. He certainly would be no angel, I am sure of that. But it also seems to me that often, vehement anti-Trump sentiment has little to do with a clear-eyed assessment of the possible harms that he would cause.

What explains the particular mind-shattering power that Trump somehow inflicts on so many of his political opponents? Interestingly, it largely do not seem to be his actual political counterparts among the Democrat elite who view him as an eldritch destroyer of worlds... the Democrat elite may hate him, may despise him, may say that he is a threat to democracy, but I don't think I can remember any time that any of them acted as if he was a threat to one's very psychological foundation. Maybe their power and their close understanding of American politics generally inoculates them against such a reaction.

Huh this is a puzzle to untangle. If you have looked into the Butler shooting and not trusted the media and you aren't a crypto leftist or unable to speak English, then claiming the secret service successfully protected Trump is truly comical. And hey, the FBI successfully saved Gretchen Whitmer yeah? What a success!

Moving on, I was indeed beginning to suspect you were a crypto leftist. Turning that tweet into the incipient rise of fascism is that fucking crazy in my view. But my original image of you is as someone on the outskirts of the pmc class who sees centrism as a useful heuristic for navigating reality. Which is to say that you at the very least tolerate the progressive status quo, you just want it to be less intrusive. I view the progressive status quo as the civilisational equivalent of dating a girl with borderline personality disorder.

I can see how this is unfair to you, but you have to understand I've already lived through half a decade of monthly 'boy I was all on board the maga train at first but this latest tweet is terrifying' posts and tweets. Beyond that I really think you should wait until Trump has at least one disaster under his belt before you start worrying. On reflection though I was imprecise with my language, instead of saying that you trust the media, what I should have said is that you don't distrust the media. And if you think you do, you don't do it enough. Until your first instinct when you read or hear anything on the news or reddit or Facebook or X etc is to call bullshit, you don't distrust the media enough.