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Culture War Roundup for the week of January 13, 2025

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I think a permanent peace, even if it means being a temporary pariah state works better. The constant cycle of terrorism->Israel bombs the shit out of Gaza/West Bank -> temporary truce while militants rearm and reorganize -> terrorism -> repeat cycle serves no one. It’s not even really peace. Peace would mean that Israel could more or less stand down, and not need to put in all the apartheid regime stuff that it does because Palestinians are no longer a potential threat. Palestine could rebuild itself and either become part of a federated state within Israel or a small state perhaps in West Bank that would not be bombed every 5-10 years.

This is where Western interference is causing the problem. Because the Hamas/Fatah movements are never completely defeated, they simply call for ceasefire, and in some future time it starts again. Probably with better weapons and with the lessons learned from this round.

This is where Western interference is causing the problem.

The majority of people who matter in the west don't see this as a problem because they don't want the conflict to end with an Israeli victory. We saw this for instance when the pushes for a ceasefire in Lebanon started really picking up steam (driven by people like Macron) at the exact point it was clear how effectively the IDF was dismantling Hezbollah.

If they become a pariah state they lose their peace with Jordan and Egypt, so that doesn't help.

Jordan and Egypt at war with Israel is a massive loss for those 2 countries. The inertia of peace keeps them from rattling the sabres to sate domestic bloodlust. Being in a belligerent state makes obvious the precarity of their domestic military and economic capabilities, exposing the regime to internal threats that are much more willing and capable of stringing the existing leaders up from lampposts. Its better for Sisi and Hussein to shrug their shoulders and say 'the US is forcing this peace on us' than to actually mobilize and expose how weak they really are.

Once Israel is a 'pariah state', 'the US is forcing this peace on us' is no longer usable.