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I’m surprised at your lack of vision here, 2rafa. To me it’s more than obvious we can conquer space. We’ve already got people living in the ISS. If we don’t blow ourselves up it’s only a matter of time imo.
We went from having our home be sub Saharan Africa to living in the entire world. Space is just the next step.
That seems totally in character. The best rafa posts are a window into the Id of the beancounter, and many heuristics that really really almost always work are found there.
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Youre sober, though-minded, pragmatic. You have a very high opinion of chinese politics. You write ironic comments about the "atavistic experience" of visiting israel. You justify your gender politics with dynastic economy, and I get the impression that that really is your motivation, and youre enthusiastic rather than wistful about it. These things and others like them are what, to the ire of the mods, I have summarised as a "beancounter", though I dont think you really mind.
The Id is what acts unconstrained by social demands. You can and do make posts that dont make the customary concessions to non-beancounter perspectives, and I find these the most interesting.
Your attitude to space exploration makes sense in this light. Sending ships into open seas beyond the range where they have time to come home is a waste almost every time its been tried. Noone has ever decided to do that based on actuarial tables or their equivalent in the mind. A certain, may I say romantic, vision is required - even Columbus did not argue "Well we might discover a previously unknown continent, most of which you can conquer, and that would more than pay for all the losses throughout history" because that would sound really fucking stupid.
"Innovation" and "Disruption" dont have a natural place in the world of the beancounter. Eg premodern china. In the West we have bullied them into caring about those (see also: all the cargoculting about them), and its in character that you could ignore that.
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Welcome back.
Also, don’t be a jerk.
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This is unnecessarily mean.
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But why, though? The US was and is better in a lot of ways than Europe (more arable land, great scenery, natural resources). What does space have over earth? The view?
Habitation on Mars would be in radiation shielded bunkers underground, how is that even comparable to living on earth?
You have to think longer than a few generations. Or course it’s going to be terrible for the first century or two. Everyone on board with the mission knows that.
They are inspired by something far grander than their own small existence. I hope you are able to understand someday.
I think that you will be able to find first generation colonists. I also think that the rage of the second generation will be hideous to behold, and the relative immigration rates will make third-world immigration look like a trickle. I don't want to agree with @2rafa, I fantasised about colonising space when I was younger, but absent huge technological improvements living anywhere except a terraformed planet is going to be basically crap forever.
I suppose it depends on how much you believe in blank slatism. If the children of those who took the long view and volunteered for hardship, take the the long view and volunteer for hardship, what would they have to "rage" about?
I guess. They wouldn’t really be volunteering so much as being volunteered, and that might make a difference too.
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What’s the endgame? I don’t think I’m blinded by my small existence, I think they’re blinded by science fiction; they fantasize about playing golf on an alien world with candy cotton trees, about going on space liners around the rings of Saturn, about going where no man has gone before. They imagine a universe of earth-like worlds with breathable atmospheres, each full of its own mysteries, cultures, fertile soil for new civilizational growth. Is it they who are lying to themselves. Space is a black void. It is strictly worse than earth in every way. Better to be done with the delusion now (which, again, is not to say I’m against exploring it, only doing so honestly).
All of what you’re talking about is possible, relatively easily in my opinion. Do you think scientific advances will stop?
We have barely scratched the surface of what is possible. You aren’t thinking big enough, still. In 10,000 years, assuming we don’t collapse our society and technology continues to progress, we will be powerful beyond belief. Space will be a cakewalk to master.
If you want some serious reading on this I recommend Beginning of Infinity.
Eventually, yes.
How do you know that? How do you know we haven't already accomplished ~90% of what's possible?
I, for one, think these are both big, unsupported conjectures.
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