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PaperclipPerfector  19d ago (text post)   30951 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of December 2, 2024

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I think the main blocker is that stronger Bitcoin adoption could be a disaster for the US, given that it's a direct competitor to its main export: US Dollars/Treasuries.

On the other hand, stablecoin adoption should thrive, for the same reason.

The Fed's position is that Bitcoin is a competitor to Gold, not USD and that they already hold to Gold's current market cap not being a threat, so as long at BTC remains under Gold, it's also not a threat.

People seem to forget that while Bitcoin is now ostensibly "a real thing" it's still worth less than Apple. It's a contender but not yet a systemic risk in the grand scheme of things.

If maxis are right, it will become something of this (perhaps in the next cycle). But not right now.

I think the main blocker is that stronger Bitcoin adoption could be a disaster for the US, given that it's a direct competitor to its main export: US Dollars/Treasuries.

On the other hand, stablecoin adoption should thrive, for the same reason.

On the third hand, what if the Federal Reserve did what Microstrategy is doing. Sold treasuries to gorge on the rapidly appreciating asset that is Bitcoin.

Is the Fed not required to disclose its asset holdings on a regular basis? If so, wouldn’t we find out soon if they were hodling BTC

Well, it's working for Saylor, so why the hell not?

Right? The current market cap of BTC is $2T-ish. The US National Debt is $36T. This much money, what's a car cryptocurrency? I'm sure our government has wasted $2T on worse things.

Part of the problem here is that for all its claims to be a valid currency (medium exchanged for goods and services) the most important factor is user buy-in. Gold is at least rare, shiny, and has practical uses. Fiat at least has governments willing to issue it, pay with it, and expect taxes in it. Bitcoin has, I guess, a decade of history and meteoric rising valuations.

Which isn't to say that we couldn't rapidly lose trust in fiat or gold either (goldbugs when the philosophers stone is invented, or asteroid mining), but I do have doubts people would take Bitcoin as seriously if the US Treasury owned a majority stake in it. Although I suppose that feels less existential to crypto as the idea has matured and people hear about it.

I mean, theoretically it would work more like a hostile takeover than a private acquisition. Which is to say, the Federal Reserve would be forced to pay market rates over a period of time allowing others to do the same. Unless they pull an FDR and just outlaw private ownership of Bitcoin the way they did Gold, in which case I agree, it would probably cause people to take Bitcoin a lot less seriously.

and just outlaw private ownership of Bitcoin the way they did Gold

If you can get past the obvious 1A issue, that is; Bitcoin being speech and not a physical thing helps in that regard.

I think the main blocker is that stronger Bitcoin adoption could be a disaster for the US, given that it's a direct competitor to its main export: US Dollars/Treasuries.

Yeah this is a huge and complicated problem. Ultimately would have to tie it to the dollar somehow, which yeah I guess is what stablecoins are trying to do.

Can you invest in stablecoins the same way you do other cryptocurrencies though?

Sorta. In liquidity pools, there are coin/stablecoin pairings and stablecoin/stablecoin ones (with lower payout).

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