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KulakRevolt  6hr ago (anarchonomicon.com)   344 thread views

The Warlord's Reading list

anarchonomicon.com

Hey gang haven't been crossposting my stuff here as much recently, let me know if you'd like me do that more....

But I thought you guys would be interested in my latest mega-article project. (this one is literally book length)

For those of you that like "The Anarchonomicon Real Banned Books List"

I present "The Warlord's Reading List"

The idea is that its a curriculum for perspective warlord, revolutionaries, Militia Leaders, self defense forces, independent espionage agents, arms traffickers... All the interesting people, with the goal that heaven forbid chaos come to your country there is a pre-curated body of knowledge (with links) that you can quickly and efficiently develop a deep familiarity if not expertise through self directed study.

This this started as just a short list for myself, and then It slowly grew into its current 150+ entry, 22 category, 30,000 word, book length survey of the state of modern warfare complete with oppinions minireviews, and catgirls.

If you're interested in the theory of Marxist Guerilla warfare, Crypto-currency money laundering, special weapons and tacitcs, precision marksmanship and sniper warfare, nuclear weapons survival, effective leadership, operational art and the formation of general staffs, high and low tech logistics, prison economics, digital opsec, high speed mounted warfare, and forming your own blackmail networks... Reconsider you life priorities... But also check out my new booklist!

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Israel has seen it's fronts multiply and its geopolitical situation decaying as we speak as it fights mutliple iran backed enemies and has had major blow for blow exchanges with Iran, If Israel makes it to 2030 I'll say that they beat the odds. And I did not predict "as well as" I predicted a major conflict INVOLVING the US would continue, start, or conclude in that period... that could be civil war, that could be cartel war, that could be nuclear exchange with russia, but that could also just be Ukraine or Israel escalating to kill 1 million since the US is already involved in both. At the time of that writing 2 wars involving the US were already active Ukraine and Israel, and BOTH are creeping up through the hundreds of thousands dead right now.

My predictions have been VERY SPECIFIC. And the things I write are true, full stop.

And I did not predict "as well as" I predicted a major conflict INVOLVING the US would continue, start, or conclude in that period

Well, you gave an actual civil war almost 50% likelihood:

Civil War or “Troubles” is still slightly below a 50% likelihood

Then:

After [the election] either Trump wins, in which case they are incentivized to reverse entirely and wield all those new migrants and existing problem ethnicities to riot and act as shock Troops against Trump supporters. That way House Democrats and Regime Republicans can try to prevent a Trump confirmation, Something they have openly discussed and plan to do.

And in the event of a Trump or Vance election mass rioting will begin, in American cities, and probably widespread rape and murder by the millions of violent foreign migrants imported and strategically shipped across the country to strategic regions and municipalities.

(There’s probably no way to prevent that even if the Regime cared to, the people they imported are from countries where rioting, and killing people in riots is simply not the hard distinction Americans perceive it to be, you’d have a hard time explaining to many Haitian and central American illegals why looting and burning shops would be fine but killing the shop owners and raping their wives and daughters wouldn’t be)

Yes, which means I gave "NOT a civil war" MORE than 50%, which given there were mutliple assassniation attempts on the lead candidate one of which came an inch from killing him, that sounds right or even conservative .

In reply to the "then" please read the introduction to my immediate previous piece on the topic and civil war preparedness.

The predictions for which I give probabilities are the predictions.... The long elaborate descriptions of scenarios to be prepared for NECESSARILY CANNOT BE, because everytime you describe something additional happening the overall likelihood of all of it happening lowers.

I described about 20 different possible dynamics and scenarios in that piece as preparedness exercise. NECESSARILY the value and detail of a scenario for planning and preparedness is ANTI-CORRELATED with its overall total likelihood since each additional piece of information or dynamic, which is valuable for preparedness, is another thing that may or may not happen.

In short I give probability predictions in keeping with the norms of Less-Wrong rationalism because that is valuable for declaring your priors, then I give the elaborate scenario planning, because that is how militaries and serious organizations wargame.

Specifically the mass rioting if Trump won, I expect that would have 100% happened if he had won the electoral college but lost the popular vote (which strikes me as a vastly more likely scenario than what happened given his track record) then there would have been a cause to argue Trump's win was a result of systemic white supremacy and the American system favouring white rural voters over urban voters... which could have been ginned up by media like the summer of Floyd... Trump's total electoral victory was very unlikely given available information (most odds had him 40-45% to lose and presumably another 20-30 to only win closely)

His incredibly decisive victory (contrary to his previous 2 elections) was an surprising factor... though there's still a fair amount that can go wrong between here and inauguration, or in his first year... not least 2 very unstable wars right now.

My predictions have been VERY SPECIFIC. And the things I write are true, full stop.

That has yet to be the case, ever.

The things you write are what you want and hope will happen. Whether you really believe they will happen or are just trying to manifest them into being, I'm genuinely unsure.

I predicted a major conflict INVOLVING the US would continue, start, or conclude in that period

A bold prediction to make considering it exhaustively covers literally every possibility

1 Million people dead, in a conflict involving the US, overlapping with a 3 month window is "literally every possibility"

I mean I agree the US is a violent unstable regime, but I don't think it's quite at the point of INEVITABILITY that it will always be involved in a mass die off.

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