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PaperclipPerfector  5mo ago (text post)   1330 thread views

Transnational Thursday for November 21, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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A few hours ago, Russia fired an ICBM with a MIRV warhead at Ukraine. It looks like it was just the kinetic vehicle with no nuclear warheads.

Not an ICBM, a mid-range MIRV missile.

It looks like it was just the kinetic vehicle with no nuclear warheads.

Is that supposed to be surprising? Russia has been conducting missile strikes for years with nuclear-capable missiles (not least because most of their modern missiles are nuclear-capable).

Russia using an ICBM is just a symbolic tit-for-tat for the US ATACMs range release. It's not a particularly cost-efficient delivery platform, but is intended to play into the recent implicit saber-ratling as a demonstration of capability.

It’s not surprising, but I think it‘s worth mentioning when talking about an ICBM launch.

Putin apparently now says it was an IRBM, aimed at some kind of missile factory in retaliation for Biden's long-range weapon approval:

https://weapons.substack.com/p/the-fake-icbm-ukrainian-propaganda

Pivdenmash is indeed a large missile factory, and has been repeatedly attacked during the course of the war.

Did it hit?

Yes, there is video footage of multiple MIRVs hitting the ground. There do not appear to be any interceptions. It looks like the MIRVs were targeted at an empty area and not any particular target, although I have heard chatter that it may have been a Ukrainian military facility. Given the apparent lack of conventional or nuclear explosives in the MIRVs, I don’t think there was any significant damage.

I don’t think there was any significant damage.

Sending a "We can get you" message does quite a bit of damage on morale and the government image.

Russia has consistently had full coverage of entire Ukraine territory with its weaponry, there's nothing new in that. Ukrainian government is well aware of that fact.

Putin says it's an "Oreshnik" missile and claims Western defense capabilities are useless against it.

random X link

claims Western defense capabilities are useless against it.

well, MAD works for nuclear-armed countries

It certainly dropped an impressive array of fireworks, with no apparent defensive response...

Seeing how few interceptions were visible during the latest attack on Israel, and that the missiles use there were a tier above (SM-3, THAAD, Arrow) and none of them was ever mentioned as being deployed to Ukraine ?

Why'd you expect a single interception? Patriot can intercepts Scuds, missile with vastly lower velocity and predictable trajectories.

Why'd you expect a single interception?

I don't -- I think the point Putin is making here is that he can put missiles anywhere in Europe and nobody will intercept them?

That has been the state of affairs since.. forever, basically. Iranians showed off quite precise missile back after Soleimani was killed. That should've made it clear Russians have or could have the same thing easily.

Anyone with half a brain understand slapping one more stage on a missile and maybe hardening it a bit against re-entry heating isn't a great deal.

And as to ABM, the mechanics of saturation attacks are well understood, as is the disparity between attack and defense.

Anyone with half a brain

I think the intended audience is the other segment of the population...

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