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naraburns  nihil supernum  1mo ago (text post)   27170 thread views

U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread

With apologies to our many friends and posters outside the United States... it's time for another one of these! Culture war thread rules apply, and you are permitted to openly advocate for or against an issue or candidate on the ballot (if you clearly identify which ballot, and can do so without knocking down any strawmen along the way). "Small-scale" questions and answers are also permitted if you refrain from shitposting or being otherwise insulting to others here. Please keep the spirit of the law--this is a discussion forum!--carefully in mind.

If you're a U.S. citizen with voting rights, your polling place can reportedly be located here.

If you're still researching issues, Ballotpedia is usually reasonably helpful.

Any other reasonably neutral election resources you'd like me to add to this notification, I'm happy to add.

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Decision Desk HQ has called Pennsylvania (and the election) for Donald Trump. I'm pretty sure this means we're 30 minutes out from the results being announced on most major news networks.

I don't really have commentary, except to say how impressed I was at how close this election was, and how accurate most polls were. Trump's results tonight are very much within the 'expected error' for most polls -- he isn't winning by 5% or 10% nation wide. The polls indicated that Kamala was favored to win the popular vote by about 1%, but with 'error bars' of +/- 3% or so. Trump is currently expected to win the national popular vote by about 1%, which is a difference of 2%. That small amount is enough to push a bunch of swing states into his win column in the final Electoral Vote count, but this was still a nail-biter of an election

Yeah this is pretty consistent with a small polling error where the polls said it was 50/50. Trump won every one of the 6 swing states because the margins on them were pretty thin.

Yeah I can’t believe Iowa went Harris. Oh wait no that poll was off what 15 points? I was told by many here that my pointed criticisms of that poll were merely politically motivated.

You're right, but also that specific Selzer poll was a massive outlier from pretty much all other polls, and Nate Silver admitted that upfront, which I really respect.

"Gold standard" talk all over the internet.

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