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So assuming harris loses, how do you guys think the democratic party will realign for 2026 and 2028? (And don't give me terrible, bad faith answers like, "they won't." They demonstrably have been-- sliding in trump's populist direction since at least 2020).
My predictions are that they'll moderate on cultural issues but head in a strongly left-populist direction on economic issues.
So regarding culture war issues, they won't drop abortion as a platform plank, but if trump fails to restrict it nationally the furor over it will just naturally reduce. Regarding gay, transgender, and minority rights, they'll probably just head in a more libertarian direction... continuing to enforce the same consensus culturally, but switching to a stance of resisting rather than promoting government interventions regarding those groups. The big exception will be immigration... Trump is going to take some sort of action against immigrants, and regardless of how effective those actions are, for the sake of his own ego he'll have to claim that they were successful. And regardless of whether he is, since immigration is mostly a perception issue that will naturally reduce its salience for his base. But on the flip side, democrats will be free to blame anything and everything they want on anti-immigration policies. Police violence, economic stagnation, loss in global standing, etcetera. And they'll be in the enviable position of being able to promise rosy outcomes without having to worry about actual policy, as the republicans are now.
Regarding economic issues... If Trump passes tax cuts (highly likely) they will raise the deficit and interest rates. If he passes tariffs (likely, though probably not to the degree he promised) they will raise the CPI. If he passes immigration restrictions/successfully kicks out illegal immigrants (likely), the price of housing will temporarily stall (likely) or fall (unlikely)-- though the effect here is proportional to the economic damage elsewhere, and in particular the rise in the cost of services. The net effect of all this will be to the benefit of, ironically, well-educated urban professionals with the financial resources to buy (or to already have bought) a house in the near term, and to do their electronics shopping in foreign countries. But in turn, poor people-- and especially poor people in locations that already had cheap housing-- will see a reduction in their buying power, without a commensurate increase in their salaries. If trump cuts welfare too that will in particular activate them. So I forsee a muscular resurgence of Bernie-and-Yang type "free gibs" promises tied to calls to tax "the rich" in a more explicitly redistributive framework. That might not sound too different from what the democratic party currently does, but it is-- current democratic policies are more tailored towards rewarding specific interest groups ("forgivable low interest loans for black male business owners" type beat) and feature complex taxation schemes designed by think tanks to extract exactly enough taxes to pay for them (as assessed by said think tank.) But by 2028, I think we'll see more maximalist proposals that start with a target enemy and a round number and elide specific details about distribution. Think, "10% wealth tax on billionaries and everyone gets their fair share!" They'll learn not to promise X thousand dollars per month, or any nerdy-glasses-emoji policy wonkery bullshit... they'll just rely on people thinking, "wow, bilionaires are mega rich, so if we make them even a little less mega rich everyone can be just regular rich!"
Two big thing I noticed while going through liberal coagulating spaces for schadenfreude is an acceptance that-
Illegal immigration might be a real issue rather than covert racism. The large scale shift of Latino voters towards republican definitely befuddled the traditional Democrat voters ideological worldview. Would this result in bipartisan support for tougher immigration policies or less resistance in enforcement of border security is to be seen.
Maybe the trans issue has been pushed too far. There seems to be an implicit understanding that even with many reaffirming the rights of trans individuals, the push for transition therapy and other CW issues such as trans being allowed to use Women's bathroom has alienated a lot of people. Another thing that commonly came up was regret about the trans movement's confrontation of even people supporting lesbian/gay rights for not supporting far left trans talking points.
I do think that the rank and file Democrats would eventually adjust their messaging regarding these two for sure, but what I am more interested to see is how the far left reacts to these adjustments.
The most plausible way I can see Democrats shifting on trans issues is to shift focus to encouraging and/or mandating individualized unisex bathrooms. It resolves the most salient of the objections (biological men creeping on women), while still enabling trans people and their preferences (not have to be treated as someone of their birth sex), and more importantly appears like they're supporting trans people, while offloading all of the burden onto private enterprises who now have to pay for enough individualized bathrooms to accommodate everyone. They can even spin this as "all inclusive", because only having women's and men's bathrooms still buys into the gender binary, while unisex bathrooms support everyone of all genders and fluidities and whatever.
Agreed. The only practical benefit of sex-segregated toilets is that women don't have to walk past an operative urinal on the way to their stall.
Not quite. There's still the broader bathroom that itself contains the stalls. Men and women both are going to feel less comfortable pooping in a stall next to someone of the opposite sex, and coming out and washing their hands, or doing makeup, or whatever. Not that it's super comfortable to do that among people of the same sex, but its worse if they're opposite. All of the unisex bathrooms I've encountered are real life are defined that way because it's like a normal house bathroom: one room with one toilet, one sink, and a lock on the door. From that perspective then, the benefit of sex-segregated toilets is the economy of scale because you can build 5 stalls in a large room much more cheaply than you can build 5 separate rooms.
I didn’t realize I’d typical minded others in this way until now. I feel no compunctions about shitting next to someone. The only thing that might give me pause is if I’m shitting loudly next to acquaintances, but it’s okay if they don’t know I’m the one in the stall.
The fact that some people feel discomfort from pooping in a public space certainly changes the political implications of such a move.
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Re: 1, immigration, I agree that non-racism explanations are enough to explain the bulk of the opposition. (Though of course, I would very surprised to hear about any racist that's in favor of it.) But it's worth remembering that Harris also campaigned quite a bit on border security, and the actual party line is more "people have a right to apply for asylum and parents shouldn't be separated from children" than "open borders," (sadly.) You do remember the bipartisan immigration bill, right? But it's definitely true that Trump and the republicans were more successful at credibly presenting themselves as people who would be actually successful at halting illegal immigration, and additionally being more hostile to legal immigration as well. The former was smart politics, but the latter, I think, will prove to be a liability when the effects of restricting immigration turn out to be exactly what the economists said they would be.
Re: 2, trans issues, I'm definitely getting the same vibe.
I'm seeing the usual liberal "ritual apology to rural voters" and usual leftist "liberals will always betray the revolution!" sentiments. Ultimately I think economics will be decisive, though. If Trump's economy does well, contrary to my expectations, a lot of leftists will deradicalize into liberals. If it does poorly, the democratic party will shift left to contrast, pleasing leftists by satisfying their concerns.
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It may but I think the pendulum can swing really fast on this one if Trump overreaches and tries to indulge the 'mass deportations now' crowd. Being tough at the border but generous to people once they're established and resident in the country, even if illegally, seems a winning triangulation position.
I would be very surprised if this made any difference to the election outcome.
I wouldn't. In my admittedly annecdotal experience parents of young kids and young couples looking to have kids weren't just "turned off" by all the secret transition, and men in women's sports stuff coupled with all the "queering of _____" talk, they were in full "kill it with fire" mode and they seem to have broken overwhelmingly for Trump.
In all the exit polls the economy and 'state of democracy' dominated top issues, with abortion and immigration important secondary issues and small slivers for other things like foreign policy. Transgender issues didn't feature anywhere. Could have been an ancillary issue for some? Very possibly, but it's odd that if it was an issue of even secondary/tertiary significance to many voters that it would have appeared nowhere in all the exit polls.
...And you believe them?
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Here's my good faith answer: They won't.
Demographically there is no future 'Republican' party. There are no measures in place to turn the tide of the browning of America. What you'll get is a third world political schema. The playbook runs the same direction everywhere: Brown identitarianism. The democrats can literally do nothing and everything will be golden.
The Republicans will change their tune and move towards 'respectable' and 'sensible' third world politics. A regimented and what they hope to be invisible caste system where specific institutions that separate the good from the bad are solidified and protected. The future 'democrats' exist to destroy this with more extreme class and ethnocentric propaganda.
There's no sense in presuming anything else. Demographically the country is being held together by a bunch of 40-80 year olds. White children are already a minority. On top of that the history of American conservatism is one of nothing but losses. There is not a single thing on earth they have managed to conserve. The only thing democrats need to do is keep on keeping on. Which is what happens regardless of who wins the elections as seemingly every single politician loves nothing but an endless stream of brown immigrants.
I disagree.
The GOP has a clear path forward, Trump has seemingly reinstantiated the Reaganist "coalition of doers", the coalition of people who add value to the economy rather than extracting it. That is a brand with a future.
In contrast it seems to me that it's actually the Democrats who are looking down the barrel of demographic collapse. As they increasingly become the party of queer xes/xirs and wine-drunk cat-moms they become increasingly dependent on "imported" votes and lumpenproles and that is why they have (quite reasonably tbh) been treating Trump's anti-immigration stance as an existential threat.
The "browning of America" is a non issue next to the "Asiaing" or "South Americaing" of America.
If you want to tie your future to third world politics, sure. That is exactly what happened to Reagan's California.
Democrats are not looking down the barrel of demographic collapse. Every single relevant immigration demographic votes Democrat. You are completely wrong in this assumption. To put things a different way, both Republicans and Democrats in the US face a demographic 'collapse' of their white voter base, as the white share of the population is shrinking. Both need their share of the voting block to grow, but it's only Democrats who are successfully doing it by. Republicans are doing worse than nothing for the last 80 years.
Trump has no 'anti-immigration' stance. As the man has repeatedly stated he wants as many people as possible to come in legally.
The 'browning of America' counts everyone who is not white. That includes Asians and South Americans.
Yes, California's ruling class has been quite vocal in their repudiation of the low-key barstool populism of men like Nixon and Reagan. How has that been working out for them? You want to see what the "third-worlding" of America looks like in practical terms? California is your patient zero.
Yes I know. It's also a rather stupid and Unamerican way to frame things, which is why I made the point to say the "Asiaing" or "South Americaing" of America. Because you see, the problem is not white people brown people or blue people. (that's the woke mind-virus talking) The problem is the importation of parasites and social dysfunction from Asia and South America.
You see, the specific corner of the US I am in has a sizeable black/brown population that's been here since the 18th century. In short, my America isn't "browning" so much as it is brown and has been for longer than anyone can remember. It is also obvious at a glance that it's not these people who are the problem. You want to see the problem? look to California, look to the Northeast. There is your problem.
That's exactly my point? What did you think I was saying when I pointed out the folly of California? How did you think Californias current "ruling class" came to be?
Can you place the parasites and social dysfunction in a box or does it come with the people? It's obviously coming with the people. Where did they get it from? Does it fall from the sky or is it just a product of these people not being like white people? And the most important question of all, are there any realistic mechanisms to sort the people from the parasites and dysfunction?
Your particular corner of America is not representative of America as a whole, which ued to be 85-90% white between 1910 and 1960. The social dysfunction that has followed the largest non-white group of 'Americans' has done so for the entirety of the countries history. These people are obviously a problem, regardless of what you think it is.
I think they "came to be" by rejecting both our nation's founding principles, and the "low-key barstool populism of men like Nixon and Reagan" in favor of the rhetoric of people like you. People who care more about the color of a man's skin than they do their behavior/content of thier character.
Yes you can. Specifically by tackling the behavior directly. The cucked liberal identitarian whinges about "disparate impacts" and "social capital" the based conservative declares "looters will be shot" and allows the cards to fall where they may.
Im going stop you right there. When I look at the US today (or anytime in the last 40 years or so) the most socially dysfunctional states are almost never the states that are the most black or brown, its the states that are the most blue.
Then you would be wrong. The people who came to be the ruling class in California just promised a group of people within their constituency certain things that those people wanted. These things were not illegal because men like Reagan made them legal. The only principle of the founding fathers that was rejected was rejected by both Reagan and the now ruling class of California: That immigration be reserved for white men of good character.
I care about race, since race correlates with behavior.
The cucked liberal runs every socially relevant institution in America. The based conservative licks their boot and talks tough on social media before folding to the new cucked liberal politics like every single conservative before him. I mean, everything you've professed to believe so far is just the cucked liberalism of 30 years ago.
So black population centers aren't the most violent and poorest? The social dysfunction you see in places where the murder rate is comparable to Africa is somehow not as bad as in white neighborhoods in Vermont? I'm far from convinced.
No, you care about race because you made a choice to care about race.
And again, how has that been working out for them? and how has it been working out for those institutions?
Mine is not the "cucked liberalism" of 30 years ago, mine is the cucked liberalism of 200 years ago.
Define black, define poor, define violent. Alternately just take a walk through San Francisco, Chicago, or Minneapolis and then take take the same walk in Atlanta, Mobile, or Jacksonville and tell me which seems more dysfunctional.
I understand that you will likely disagree but i would contend that a reduction in social status is a small price to pay for clean streets and relative peace.
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Much more so on X than in reality. Apart from Texas, the places that pay net federal taxes are all solidly blue, and the people who actually build Musk's rockets appear to be (based on published stats about who corporate employees donate to) supermajority Democrats. The biggest Republican success story (De Santis' Florida) has an economy that is dependent on attracting retirees who come with large fiscal transfers attached. Remember that Trump's stated economic policy (which his normie supporters are strongly in favour of) is to repeal the CHIPS act, impose 10-20% tariffs on any ASML EUV machines that Intel (or TSMC US) tries to install in their next fab, and focus industrial policy on trying to bring toaster factories back to the Rustbelt.
The problem for a coalition of doers on the right is that most of the doers sit in the libertarian quadrant of the political compass, whereas the easiest place to take votes off the Democrats is in the populist quadrant. In the UK, housing policy is sufficiently centralised that this problem blows up the Conservative Party about once every six months.
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Demographics isn’t the only story here though. Trump made serious headway with conservative Hispanic voters, which proves that the GOP doesn’t have to be a rump party for grumpy white men hrumpfing their way to demographic irrelevance. The thing drawing people is that the conservatives are also the Christian Party and the party of such values as anti-abortion, pro-marriage, not wanting to trans your kids, teaching the Tem Commandments in schools, etc. all of which conservative Catholic Hispanics would be mostly in favor of. The GOP is also the meritocratic and capitalist party in which hard work and private ownership of goods, businesses etc. are seen as the keys to prosperity. This would also tend to draw the same demographics as they’re fleeing actual socialism, and they know exactly where it leads. They’re not going to vote for socialism in their new country.
I'm hard pressed to call 45% to the 44% of Bush Jr "serious headway".
The reason demographics is the only story here is that the group voting 45% for Trump is growing. Whilst the group voting 60% for Trump is shrinking. And despite allegedly "fleeing actual socialism" the majority of them has consistently voted for the closest approximation of it in American politics.
On top of that, the things drawing people towards the Democrat party are far more tangible than the Republican. Most notably money in your pocket and food in your belly. As can be seen in California where 55% of immigrant households accept some form of welfare benefits. This group, as a total % of the population, is growing. Whilst the "native" group with 25% accepting welfare is shrinking.
The main point that underscores all of this is that the demographics are pushing the country towards third world norms. If people care a lot about whatever third world hole they live in being controlled by people labeling themselves "Republican" instead of "Democrat" I can't fault them. But I point out, usually in complete futility, that once you've reached that point, it doesn't matter. You get to have Brazil level living standards and if you want something else it doesn't matter.
Odd thing to comment on a thread explicitly about the electoral prospects of the Democratic party. Not every post is an invitation to kvetch about immigration.
It's not an odd thing and my answer was on topic.
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Naw. Even if there was some great conspiracy to brown america, intermarriage rates have been getting higher for decades. The endpoint is just brazil. where even people with visible african and amerindian admixture just identify as "white" and have the same culture as everyone else in their city anyways. America's assimilative power is just too great.
Clarence Thomas is "Whiter" in the Kipling-esque sense than any of the queers, trans, furries, Et Al who are very concerned about dysigeninics or "the browning of America". CMV ;-|
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Nawone said that there was.
80-90% of people are not intermarrying. The largest population increases are not from new births but immigrants, most of whom are arriving from rather ethnohomogenous places. I see no relevance to that graph unless you are talking about an America 200 years in the future. My point would be that until you have Brazil and full blown third world politics, you have more and more brown identitarianism. Which is what's already going on and has been going on with every single third world minority group that enters America.
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I think a lot of these are pretty reasonable guesses. What I want to see is a renewed focus on presenting some kind of narrative alternative in opposition to MAGA, particularly Vance who seem like the future of the Republicans.
Right now the Democrats’ vision for America feels like continued management of the existing system, and not only is that boring, it’s incredibly weak against an opponent that has a clear message for what the country should look like. Pointing to specific causes of specific problems beats hand-wavy answers and technocratic tax-credit solutions. (Even if sometimes the hand-wavy answers are correct!)
Bernie style populist policies are definitely a component of that, but I don’t want to flip to the naive “just tax the rich until things are fixed”. I really want to see them push policies that are useful for building secular shared norms and openly present them as such.
I'm surprised to hear this because to me, Vance seems like a truly different kind of politician than trump... and one I like a lot better. He's from a separate part of the republican coalition that's coterminous with, for example, mitt romney. Religiously influence, conservative-trending-dominionist social views, isolationist FOPO views, and a faith in capitalism that's balanced by a paternalistic personal morality. MAGA hats, meanwhile, have more of a "1980's New York Liberal" personality... there's a lot they disapprove of (including the blacks, mexicans, and gays), but they'll accept don't-ask-tell compromises instead of government meddling, The isolationist FOPO views are the same, but economics-wise, it's pure, populist, retail politics.
Anyways, secular shared norms would be great... but I think the era of trump proves that it's more efficient to just find an enemy that 51% of voters can hate.
Oh yeah, I think he’s quite different than Trump, specifically that he’s actually smart and (seems like) competent. I think he presents a clear vision for America, it’s just one I don’t like.
I think democrats could come up with something that competes with that, but not if they let basic pro-family, pro-health, and pro-community messages become further right-coded.
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I think democrats will dial back on the race and gender stuff, because they’ll blame Harris’ loss on her being a bad candidate(and in fairness she was) and then blame that on her being a black woman.
I don’t expect this to be a stable equilibrium; the DNC’s calls for the race and gender stuff are coming from inside the house.
I broadly agree, but "which races" and "what framing" is an important choice. Republicans, for example, have successfully split off the cubans as a clade distinct from the rest of the hispanics. I think the democrats might cede some ground on the traditional "races", but in exchange make a greater effort to isolate local and regional groups. I'm personally a midwestern supremacist, and I think there are fracture points the democrats could target to sever the alliance with the southerners and in particular the gulf-coasters. (Why should iowan farmers pay for flood insurance in florida!? Stop building your houses on sand! Salt water rots your brain!)
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