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Notes -
I kinda doubt it. I think it’s a hobby of the too-online crowd, but I’m not convinced that the median American is all that interested in the election. I’m not hearing much discussion of the election in the real world, I’m not hearing ordinary Americans discussing things like Project 2025, trans people, immigrants or their culinary habits, etc. I’m also seeing a lot fewer signs around my neighborhood, bumper stickers, roadside homemade signs, hats, shirts, etc. honestly I’m not sure anyone else is interested. The only real conversation I’ve had offline about the candidates was right after the first assassination attempt, and that was mostly a short conversation of “OMG, did you hear someone shot at Trump.” “Yeah, that’s really weird.” That’s it.
Given this level of interest, I think you’re not going to see a lot of people consumed with election uncertainty to the point of a measurable impact on productivity. It’s not really something I’m seeing a lot of people thinking about or talking about or anything like that. I see more sports talk around me than election talk.
I was unfavorably compared to Kamala Harris on a customer call. (I was typing and talking at the same time and started to say word-salad.) I think people mostly avoid talking about politics when out in groups, but it is on people's minds.
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I may be wrong of course but the reason most don't discuss these issues is because they want (if only unconsciously) keep the fragile illusion that all of their surrounding peers hold the same views as they themselves hold, regardless of how tenuous. Broaching such topics in the current climate has the potential to create a bloodthirsty ideological combatant or lifelong enemy, where before there was just Rusty, the guy at the Hardee's on Tuesdays.
If not gone, certainly dormant are the days when healthy political discussion was a way to pass the time. I was at a group gathering recently where when someone brought up the election I said offhandedly that I would really prefer a Trump to Harris (though I was clear I did not in any way like Trump) and it was as if I had said I believed the moon was made of cheese. All eyes turned toward me with what seemed a sudden constriction of pupils and sphincters. It was a beer garden however and Bacchus hates a serious tone, so the boat eventually righted itself and we carried on (on far different topics.)
I mean it’s certainly possible, but then again we didn’t seem to have that problem with other elections. Even with it being contentious in 2016 and 2020, people still talked about current events to some degree, and people did put out yard signs, at least around me. There are now more sports flags flying than Trump or Harris combined. There’s not really much tension that I’ve seen, just that it’s not something people are interested in. They’re also not really following news. It’s just not something in the air, or anything that people seem dialed in on. It might make a difference where you are, I’m in Missouri which is pretty conservative.
No doubt--I'm in Japan, so there's that. I don't have a feel for what it's like on the ground in the US.
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