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Notes -
He also made the point that prediction markets are vulnerable to whale movements such that they cannot sufficiently clear in the short term, meaning you shouldn't weigh drastic short term movements of these markets very highly as indications of market consensus.
If the prediction markets are onto something it'll show up in the polls, otherwise things will reverse to the mean as the market clears.
Polls are of course also subject to buses (including weighting voting population).
True. But the rule of thumb that the side that is unskewing the polls is losing usually holds true.
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