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PaperclipPerfector  1mo ago (text post)   1675 thread views

Transnational Thursday for September 26, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Lebanon thread. A summary statistic is that Polymarket is at ~49% at the time of this writting that Israel will invade Lebanon. https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-enter-lebanon-before-November

Looks like it’s happening now. Closed military area in the finger of Galilee, shelling on southern Lebanon. I should have used this to make some money.

Considering that the IDF already stated that there will be Israeli boots in Lebanon, and the commando division already moved up north from Gaza, these are very low chances.

Looked into it, doesn't seem like the market has really priced recent developments. But at the same time, the US is trying to avoid an invasion. Not sure what to think.

Troop movements are always the tell for a ground invasion. It's almost certainly on.

Yeah I think 50% is about right. On one side, the only way for Israel to make the north safe again is to kick Hezbollah out over the Litani river. Where they should have been since 1980s if UN decisions weren't worth shit, but since they are, here we are. For Israel, the moment would never be as good as this again - they have the best casus belli ever, Hezbollah unquestionably started the fight, and with the Operation Grim Beeper being resounding success, the time is to strike the iron while it's hot.

On the other hand, Israel government is kinda shaky, and a lot of politicians there are itching for the opportunity to blame Bibi for "getting us into another war". And if it will be the full-scale war, there would be serious casualties - Hezbollah has a lot of rockets, and at least some of them will get to Tel-Aviv and other very densely populated areas, no defense works 100%. And Bibi's enemies will blame him for that (yes, they are definitely this cynical and more, politics is a very dirty sport). And, of course, the casualties on the IDF side will be way more than in Gaza too. Don't get me wrong - IDF is more than capable to kick Hezbollah's ass, but it won't be free, both in lives and in economic harm, and Israel is not eager to pay it. So if there's any glimmer of hope that there might be some other, cheaper, solution found, even if temporary, they will delay and hesitate for as long as possible.

I would assume US pressure against a ground invasion is also a significant factor in Israel's decision making here.

I think it'll happen. It's a now or never moment for Israel. Waning support for Israel in the US. October 7th was the perfect excuse to deal with Hamas and Gaza the way they wanted. Now the US presidential elections are coming up. It's the perfect time to handle Hezbollah the way they want.

Ground invasions into urban areas against terrorists hiding behind a hostile population under the constraints of modern human rights is a complete and utter nightmare. I can understand the impulse, but nothing good will come of it.

Uh, Lebanon’s population has nowhere near the level of support for Hezbollah that Gaza’s did for Hamas. I mean obviously the Christians have seen tensions with Hezbollah ramp up recently but the Sunnis also seem to hate Hezbollah- they just don’t like Israel any more.

In 2006 the MO was to evacuate the area of civilians, and consider anyone who stays a hostile target. In Gaza the civilians don’t have anywhere else to go, but Lebanon is big enough to make this work. (also a lot are evacuating to Syria, which probably won’t be invaded at all)

2006 is considered by many a dramatic failure, though, and civilians - or people pretending to be - just staying behind anyway will be treated by world politics and media no different than other civilians.

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