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PaperclipPerfector  2mo ago (text post)   29664 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of September 16, 2024

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Lots of smart people thought the Russians would crush Ukraine in a matter of weeks, it’s incredibly impressive on Ukraine’s part that they didn’t. And equally embarrassing for Russia.

I feel like this is a case where you just have to keep an open mind and be willing to update your views. The smart people who thought that were wrong, on both counts. Russia badly botched it's attempt at a fast, combined arms inivasion, yes. But Ukraine also hung on with much more tenacity and organization than anyone expected, and that counts for a lot. And now they've had 2 years worth of western aid and training, in a fairly large country that is all-out mobilized for war. At this point, like @ABigGuy4U said, Ukraine is not a soft target, and yet Russia continues to advance.

Now, if there were some hypothetical future war between all of NATO and Russia then, sure, Nato wins easy. Except that would never happen, because of nuclear weapons. I also don't see any particular reason why Russia would want to start such a war- there's no area of Poland that's like the Donbass, which has lots of ethnic Russians and a direct land connection to Crimea.

But every other country on Russia’s border are hardening against them, both politically and militarily.

Only the ones in Europe. They're closer than ever now to China, North Korea, and Iran. Not sure about the former Soviet states in central Asia but I don't think there's any real tension there, either.

That said, I agree with your initial point that Russia isn't particularly a threat to Poland, even on its own. So I guess I'm cautiously arguing in favor of a peace deal where Russia gets to keep the Donbass, the other European countries stay vigilent and increase defense, and hopefully there's no more war after that.

I feel like this is a case where you just have to keep an open mind and be willing to update your views.

Im not cuddles but i think i have. Have you? What if my "updated" view is that the russian military is substantially less capable than initially estemated.

I basically agree with all of this.

My initial comment was mostly in response to the idea of Russia considering Poland / Baltic Countries / Finland part of their “sphere of influence”. To which I simply don’t find the idea of those countries coming under credible military threat from Russia to be a realistic prospect at all.

In regards to Ukraine, the motivation & justification for the Putin regime is more transparently obvious, even if you ultimately disagree with or oppose that regime. Which I sort of do, largely depending on my mood.

Ukraine has really outdone itself but I simply don’t see a way around them getting ground to dust eventually by the Russian war machine outside of a deus ex machina type situation where Putin chokes on a chicken bone and Russia descends into chaos. Hopefully they can settle before they run out of young men to fight.

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