ABigGuy4U
14hr ago
Also Pakistan was included in the first wave of outsourced western manufacturing, before China was a big player in that. A lot things that are now made in China were made on Pakistan. That’s mostly gone to China now.
ABigGuy4U
1d ago
Shutting off the river is a very big deal if it stays that way. They didn’t even do that during the 2019 war IIRC.
ABigGuy4U
1d ago
Try some unsweetened fruit flavored seltzers. It’s gotten to the point where those taste as good as Sprite to me.
Not to mention the whole dichotomy of:
Violating national territorial borders—very problematic, big yikes, you did a heckin imperialism, this unseats the rules-based international order
Bombing the hell out of a country, invading it with 900,000 soldiers, executing the leaders, dissolving the government, building an entire new puppet government at bayonet-point that is more friendly to your national interests, re-invading every time it looks like that puppet government might fall, all leading to countless civilian deaths—100 percent wholesome Keanu Chungus
Ok, then why do Russia or America have armies? Why does China? Why does Israel? Why does France? They all have second strike capability, it’s just a giant waste of money for them to have armies. It’s especially wasteful in Israel’s case. No one has ever tried to invade and destroy Israel since they developed nuclear weapons, for the obvious reason that whoever tried it would be destroyed.
ABigGuy4U
2d ago
Typically though, you want to avoid situations where your two options are “lose and die” and “press the small red button marked ‘The End of the World’”
ABigGuy4U
2d ago
The guy who took responsibility for this is the same guy from 26/11, the Mumbai attacks.
I assume this is someone who not a Pakistani National or part of the military or government apparatus? What are the odds India tries to kill him? Why haven’t they already?
The Southeastern border region of Poland is pretty mountainous which would make an armored thrust a lot more difficult. Then you would have to fight through 400 miles of Belarus before you got to the Russian border, and another 200-400 miles of Russia before you a start to get to the important rail network terminals around St. Petersburg and Moscow.
Invading from the Baltic states, you either have the same problem of fighting through Belarus, or you would have to confine your offensive to the very small section that is the Latvian border, because Lake Peipus makes most of the Estonian border unusable. If you did that and are successful you could potentially cut off St. Petersburg pretty fast but it would be a slog to get to Moscow.
Any attack from the Baltics would also have two additional logistical problems: First you would have to concentrate your entire invasion force in a pretty small area of Latvia, making it vulnerable to a tactical nuclear attack or a conventional thrust into your staging areas. In the event of a conventional thrust you are backed up against the ocean, and risk having your invasion force overrun before it can even start moving. Secondly, Russia owns Kaliningrad and has a substantial force garrisoned there so you risk being attacked from your rear and potentially pincered between two Russian forces. You could deal with Kaliningrad before your invasion, but that could take a while and gives your game plan up weeks or months early unless you are planning on a first-use nuclear strike to deal with it.
Invading from Ukraine has none of these problems. You can attack through the Sumy region along a wide front line and it’s just a straight shot of about 350 miles over flat open steppe and major road systems directly to Moscow. Additionally you can easily divide the Russian force from any potential Belorussian force.
ABigGuy4U
2d ago
It’s the Department of Justice Community Relations Service. It’s rumored they use threats and intimidation to basically force cooperation from the family of the deceased.
ABigGuy4U
3d ago
But it’d be a mistake to take it seriously. It’s a bit of dark humor from Scott.
I don’t know enough about Scott’s current politics to be sure, but it sounds like a piss-take commentary about the court getting too big for its britches.
ABigGuy4U
3d ago
Tinfoil hat double feature:
@Jiro I think smoking causes cancer and is genuinely bad for you, but that smoking was intentionally used as a patsy for a lot of cancers caused by commonly used industrial compounds.
@Tree hysteria over premarital sex and teen pregnancy was intentionally induced in religious conservatives in the mid 20th century to reduce their birth rates in an effort to stamp out Christianity in the United States. You’ll notice that it was combined with induced economic and social factors that make early marriage impossible for a lot of people. The punishment in Leviticus for unmarried people caught fornicating was just to get married. Notice that the hysteria over premarital sex (reduced family formation) was also combined with a drive to get religious people to be much more lenient toward adultery/divorce (increases family dissolution), and abortion (reduces birth rates). So you have mind-broken psyopped evangelical boomers who are on their third marriage but are morallly horrified and indignant over the idea that their children might be having premarital sex at the age of 23.
ABigGuy4U
4d ago
Wow. I didn’t know that. I just — you’re telling me now for the first time.
He led an amazing life. What else can you say? He was an amazing man. Whether you agree or not, he was an amazing man who led an amazing life. I’m actually saddened to hear that. I am saddened to hear that.
I think I'd want to delve a lot more into what that alternate history would look like
There’s an alternate history novel called Fatherland that fits the scenario you described pretty well. In that book the US didn’t ally with Nazi Germany, but Germany did win and the two superpowers are locked in a nuclear Cold War with Germany taking the place of the Soviet Union. It’s 1962 and President (Joseph P.) Kennedy is trying to figure out how much to turn a blind eye toward past atrocities in the name of averting nuclear war and securing global peace. It’s also one of the very few alternate history novels about Nazi Germany winning the war that is even remotely plausible and not Man in the High Castle Wolfenstein style loopiness.
ABigGuy4U
5d ago
Have I ever claimed that Ukraine was winning a decisive victory? Brigaded you on any /#/ board? Called on you to be downvoted?
No, and I don’t mean to imply that you ever did. I don’t know what your position was regarding Ukraine’s imminent victory (I only engage with current comments, I don’t scroll through anyone’s post history), but I do feel that was the mainstream position on the Motte two years ago, and on most of the rest of the internet.
Regarding my supposed confirmation bias, I believe it’s a necessity in a time where the information zone has been flooded with propaganda, and I believe my position will be vindicated by history.
Pierce was just the edgy 90s equivalent of Nick Fuentes. His predecessor Lincoln Rockwell was probably never actually a nazi, and his plan was to make an initial splash with the shocking imagery and the brownshirt marches and then drop all that and pivot into being a more normal far right party that could actually have mass appeal. Then mysteriously Rockwell’s head explodes, Pierce seizes control of the organization, and spends thirty years trying to make it look as repellant and insane as possible (like his famous lunatic tract about starting Holocaust II before moving on to a world-burning nuclear war). You’ll notice that this is the exact same playbook that was deployed against the left, where politically competent charismatic figures like Dr. King, Fred Hampton and Robert Kennedy mysteriously die to get replaced by plants, agents and idiotic grifters like Jessie Jackson, Eldridge Cleaver and Ted Kennedy.
ABigGuy4U
5d ago
That is perhaps a valid distinction, but I don’t see any indications that Russia’s military economic advantages have actually decreased over the course of the war. Their military manpower has increased, their armaments production capability has increased. I don’t see any evidence of major economic damage besides the occasional refinery potshot and a bunch of cope about the foreign exchange rate of the ruble.
Motivated prognosticators have been predicting that the Soviet stockpiles will run dry in two weeks for the past three years but it never actually seems to happen. Meanwhile Ukraine barely has any functional power or rail infrastructure left, is drafting double amputees, and has burned through the artillery and air defense supplies of the entire western world.
I’m sorry I’m so salty about this, but I spent a solid two years getting downvoted and /k/ope brigaded for the mere suggestion that it didn’t seem like Ukraine was winning a decisive victory. Now the NPC party line has effortlessly shifted to “frozen conflict frozen conflict stalemate stalemate” when that isn’t actually true either.
ABigGuy4U
5d ago
You specifically referred to a larger standing army and larger vehicle stockpiles, that inherently means manpower and equipment.
Russia was at its maximum military-economic advantage in the earlier phases of the war, when it had not only the larger standing army but the larger standing stockpiles to match to it.
That part isn’t true though. The initial invasion force had about 180,000 men, about half of what’s on the front line now. In some parts of the line in 2022 Ukrainian forces had a 6-1 numerical advantage. And if you still believe “confirmed vehicle losses” in the middle of a propaganda blizzard surrounding a war where both sides use the same military equipment, I don’t know what to tell you. There’s a reason that Oryx abruptly shut down in October of 2023 when it was just about to become obvious that they were full of shit.
ABigGuy4U
6d ago
I will not take the psychiatric meds! I hate the Antichrist! I HATE THE ANTICHRIST!
Yes. The rates of abuse documented among teachers are far higher than clerical abuse rates and the intense focus on the latter and not the former is a politically motivated one.
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