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Culture War Roundup for the week of September 2, 2024

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They were snubbed for a reason. Trump getting their endorsement may get them part of the crank vote, but at the same time it labels them the party of cranks. If you look at the numbers, Biden won Pennsylvania in 2016 by winning over a lot of Democratic "legacy voters", mostly white working and lower class voters in rural areas, particularly in the western part of the state. Trump actually did even better among these voters in 2020, but he lost the state anyway, as his antics alienated suburbanites who typically voted Republican; Biden gained 80,000 votes in Allegheny and Montgomery counties alone, which is more or less the margin of victory. An endorsement from Tulsi Gabbard and RFK, Jr. does nothing to get you these voters, and, if anything it turns them off even more. Especially in light of the fact that a guy like RFK is well left of the Democrats on most matters, but is given a pass by Republicans because he hopped on their anti-vaccine bandwagon. Acting like this does anything to move the needle is acting similarly about Harris getting Dick Cheney's endorsement.

Outside of “not liked by the DNC” makes Tulsi a crank?

Apparently her family has some "pray away the gay" skeletons in its closet; that's the first thing that came up when I mentioned her way back when to a lefty friend.

Apparently she’s part of a pseudo-Hindu cult that believes gayness can be cured with yoga, or at least was part of it.

She's not a crank herself, but she has the reputation of one among normie suburbanites who only hear about her media heel turn. The people I know who supported her in 2020 were all the kind of lefties who expressed support for Ron Paul in 2008. Fair or not, that's the reputation she has, and I don't think her endorsement of Trump moves the needle very much, if at all, considering those same lefty supporters I was referring to tend to despise Trump.

My guess is she doesn’t have a big following amongst normie suburbanites one way or the other. But she has some Rogan cache. The endorsement doesn’t move a lot either way but helps create positive news / momentum / probably very much on the margin.

The RFK Jr one may matter. If he can get 60% of his block to vote for Trump that’s a 1% net boost. Question is whether it has negative effects but he may be a “crank” but at the same time he is associated with the left and is talking about historic left issues (eg anti war, pro free speech). It is a bit hard to reconcile that with an authoritarian Trump. So it shows that while Trump might be a bit weird, he is t the threat the Dems keep making him out to be.