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2016 wasn't a flash in the pan, it was a brick wall that all the momentum the right had been building since 2010 smashed to pieces against.
There was no momentum in 2010. In fact, there's a pretty clear descending line from 1984 Reagan to 2024 Trump, with lower highs and lower lows each cycle.
The natural constituency of the Republicans is dying of old age and being replaced with immigrants who have fundamentally different values.
In this light, it's a small miracle that the Republican Party even exists at all, let alone is relevant. As much as I hate Trump, I think he's able to reach people that normie Republicans are not.
The post-Trump world will likely look like a permanent blue victory. The Republicans didn't do anything wrong. They just don't have a big enough tribe any more and people are convinced that socialism is the path forward.
The Republicans won the largest seat number in the House they had won since 1946 and the largest individual seat gain for either party since 1948. And, of course, the momentum didn't stop there: They won more seats total in the House in 2014 than they'd had in any year since 1928. The GOP went from controlling 10 state legislatures in 2010 to controlling 25 after the 2016 elections, they took enough individual chambers to drive the Democrats down to unified control of just 5 total state legislatures, and went from occupying 23 to occupying 34 gubernatorial seats. Obama apparently presided over the Democrats losing more than 1000 downballot offices in his two terms.
The Republican Party was at an apex of its power going into 2016 that it hadn't seen in a century. Trump barely squeezed out an EC victory from that and ran behind the rest of the party everywhere, then presided over a Democratic landslide in 2018.
This:
is nonsense. They totally failed to live up to the expectations of a big portion of their base and so they got saddled with Donald Trump, who drives turnout for the Democrats at least as well as he does for Republicans, and dramatically better in midterm years. Had they done something to appease enough of the base that Trump's impact on the 2016 primary was as big as his impact on the 2012 primary and the Party went into the 2016 election with anyone more acceptable to the broader public, we'd be in a wildly different place.
IMO your last paragraph nails the problem, though I'd caution that the 2010-2020 GOP was built on demographic quicksand (because REDMAP was that good, and Democratic gains from '06-08 were reliant on a lot of soon to die blue dog Democrats).
What was the signature accomplishment of the Obama era GOP? Legislatively? I dunno? Shrinking the stimulus a bit? Scuttling the Iran Deal? SCOTUS killed 50 state Medicaid expansion? Meanwhile, the SCOTUS majority that voted liberal against W's signature culture war issue (same-sex marriage, and Trump's justices did the same with Bostock) was 40% Republican appointed. Why lie down and think of the courts when Republican-appointed justices turn liberal almost as quickly as Republicans can appoint them?
Dramatic shrinkage of the deficit, from almost 10% of GDP in 2010 to less than 2.5% of GDP in 2015, was the primary immediate accomplishment.
The Trump judges were coming no matter who the GOP President was after 2016. They were fruits of the Federalist Society cultivating actually philosophically conservative jurists for several generations and were chosen by advisors and movement conservatives. Whoever was formally appointing them after 2016 would be appointing the same people, or similar people.
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Do you remember who was expected to win before Trump showed up? There's no way that Jeb Bush was going to achieve or do anything substantially meaningful if he was elected, and even that's a tall ask - I don't think he beats Clinton in the 2016 election. In the counterfactual world where he takes office the biggest changes I can see are that Russiagate never happens, the Syrian war gets escalated and the Ukraine war kicks off early.
I agree. After McCain and Romney both failed, it's kind of hard for me to believe that any of the other 2016 Republican primary candidates other than Trump would have beaten Hillary. It seemed like the Republicans needed to try something new, because what they had been doing was not working.
To be fair, Hillary is no Obama in terms of charisma - so it would have been easier for a Republican to beat her than for one to beat Obama. But the field was pretty bad. Jeb Bush was dorky and a Bush, Marco Rubio was goofy, Ted Cruz was easily made fun of and memed on by Democrats. Maybe Kasich could have won? I don't remember much about what he seemed like.
There were no great candidates in 2016, but probably any of them but Bush could have beaten Clinton fairly easily. Bush's name would have dragged him down harder with the kinds of voters he needed to make up for the lack of immigration restrictionists that we really got to see when it was just the primaries.
There was a time when people were thinking, "I we really going to end up with Bushes and Clinton's again?!"
Fairly easily? Maybe I'm the one that's off my rocker, but from where I sit, Trump was the only one that even had the chance. The kind of people that vote Republican wouldn't go for another 4 years of the neocon war-globalism machine (there's a reason why Trump swept the primary, and continues to have a stranglehold on the party) and would just stay home, and the kind of people that wouldn't mind would be completely content to vote for Clinton.
Paul? Probably too “radical”
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You are. Clinton was a profoundly weak, unpopular candidate. She had 35 years in the public spotlight and there just was not anything to like there for the majority of Americans. No one running in 2016 could have beaten her in the landslide she deserved, but the 2016 election was Generic, Boring Republican Candidate's to lose.
2016 was a very Republican year and Clinton was a terrible candidate. As it was, Republicans across the country ran ahead of Trump, from House races to Senate, Gubernatorial, and even further downballot. A more boring election where you don't get all the negative partisanship Trump creates that has lower turnout than 2012 instead of higher turnout benefits those other Republicans even more.
This is already quite a while back, but I don't remember anyone saying it at the time, and it seems like a conclusion reached retroactively after she lost to Trump.
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Bush's lead had disappeared by the time Trump started taking off. It was essentially an open race and, to be honest, would probably have ended up being either between Rubio and Cruz or a three way between them and Kasich, depending on if Kasich and Rubio could consolidate. However, Rubio's pro-immigration image would have turned off the people who went for Trump in real life, so I could see it easily going to Cruz.
He's a weak vessel, but we didn't know that in 2016. He could probably handle Clinton fairly easily, especially if he focused on immigration like Trump did.
I was under the impression that this was in no small part due to Trump's attacks on Jeb. Without Trump there's no differentiation among the republican candidates at all, and that means Jeb's structural advantages deliver him the nomination (so he can lose to HRC). As for Cruz, we absolutely knew he was a weak vessel in 2016 - though I'm not sure that becomes as obvious with Trump out of the picture. At the same time, I don't think Cruz would even adopt the positions he did without Trump establishing them as primary-winners first.
I hate to say it because I would prefer that it didn't matter to people, but given how politics actually work, I'm not sure that Ted Cruz has the looks to win the Presidency. Trump looks weird too, but the difference is that Trump has figured out how to own his looks and make them work for himself. Almost everything weird about Trump's looks plays into his "the blue collar man's billionaire" macho persona. His obesity, his cheap-looking spray tan, his thin hair. I don't know if Ted Cruz would have been able to pull off making his looks work in alignment with his persona.
I agree that looks matter, but I think Trump also gets to coast on past glories. He was a big deal in the past, and while his appeal didn't manage to reach me, he was apparently attractive enough to spawn a flood of erotic dreams (https://www.yahoo.com/news/heres-why-always-sex-dreams-160500781.html).
That's a good point. Trump has the advantage of having an established reputation as a lothario playboy. Cruz doesn't, although given that he's a wealthy famous politician I'm sure that if he wanted to go that route he would have no shortage of opportunities.
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Bush's lead was already shrinking before Trump came down the escalator. He had an early lead because he started with more name recognition, but he was not a strong candidate along any dimension except that vague sense of competency that came from having done a good job in Florida, which he failed parlay into actual success on the campaign trail.
Immigration was already an issue prior to 2016. The whole reason the autopsy had happened after 2012 was because the Republicans were already tentatively on the restrictionists side of the brewing crisis and had been for a while -- pretty much the entirety of the highly restrictive current legal environment was passed by Republicans in the 90s and 2000s. Unfortunately the only Republican President to serve after those laws came into effect was an immigration booster and Obama was never going to enforce the letter or the spirit of the law, so they never worked.
Cruz came from the right wing of the party on this debate. He may not have made it the center of his campaign -- but he may well have -- without Trump, but he already had the reputation and had already made it a important plank of his platform.
Bush was a terrible candidate, but so was everyone else in the running. What Jeb had on his side was the GOP establishment, and none of his competitors in the non-Trump world had the charisma or popularity among the republican base to overcome that advantage.
The GOP did not actually care about immigration - they made noise about it because their base cared, but whenever they were in power they did everything they could to make sure more and more illegal immigrants entered the country. The GOP's wealthy donors wanted to make sure that they could continue to drive up the price of real estate while putting downward pressure on wages. While they made noises about it, Trump was the only person to actually try and do anything about it because he wasn't beholden to those same donors.
Autopsy? I'm not sure what you're referring to here.
Had he? Maybe I'm remembering things wrong but I don't recall Cruz talking seriously about immigration until Trump brought it up. I think in the non-Trump world Cruz just has the same positions on immigration as the GOP consensus and accepts a minor portfolio position in the stillborn Jeb! administration.
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Bush wouldn't have focused on immigration, though, because Bush is pro-immigration (as was his brother, as was his father, as was Reagan) and would rather lose and tank the GOP for a generation with it than run against immigration.
I'm talking about Cruz.
I misread your comment (and extend my apologies). I don't think Cruz wins (He's way creepier than J.D. Vance.), but I misread the comment.
Against Clinton, that's not as much an anchor as it should be. She was the anti-charisma and had the reputation of a flaming pile of shit among the general public.
I think pretty much any Republican who could speak coherently and with even a modicum of force could have beaten her in 2016, but Republicans like Jeb or Rubio would have sparked off a base revolt, anyway, while in office. Only someone who could credibly pursue immigration restriction would have been able to please the base and those two are the exact opposite.
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AAQC'd. This is the best writeup of the past 15 years in American politics I've ever seen.
My girlfriend talks a lot about how the 2016 primary was a ridiculous joke, just a stage full of jokers. The fact that Trump was able to stampede over everyone speaks to how dire the Republican party situation was at the time.
But it also definitely speaks to the contempt that a lot of grassroots Republicans felt, and feel, towards the GOP. There's a feeling, grounded in truth, that the GOP never fights and never wins, they just keep compromising, while the left keeps winning. So Trump stood up and talked tough on immigration, and American greatness, and manufacturing, and even his facile ways of showing affinity for the working man (anyone remember him miming a pickaxe in a miner's cap?) was enough to win the undying loyalty of a lot of people. There's a forgotten America, and they don't want to be forgotten.
This is it. The momentum that @laxam mentions was momentum in favor of the neocon/neoliberal/uniparty faction of the GOP. As someone in the social wing of the party, I'm glad it hit a brick wall and splintered. Better to open the field for some sort of real opposition than to be stuck "voting harder" for Republican swamp creatures and desperately hoping they won't pull the football away at the last second yet again.
I don't know if you remember the era well or not, but I do. The Republican Party of that time wasn't 'neocon' (a term in ridiculously bad odour, something no one wanted to be associated with), this was the TEA Party party. And they delivered, at least partially as a way of being seen as fighting Obama. We got several government shutdowns or near shutdowns, budget fights for the ages, and Sequestration, which included deep cuts into ostensible sacred cows like the defense budget (something I can't imagine the 'neocon' boogiemen ever doing).
Looking back, it's a shame we didn't do more. The Federal fiscal situation is out of control and is on schedule to get worse, not better, as time goes on. I was outright disgusted when the Biden administration bragged about keeping cuts to 1% in 2023 budget negotiations. We'll have a crisis on our hands within the decade because we failed to do enough in the 90s (no balanced budget amendment), we failed to do enough in the 2010s (no path to balance and the tax cuts under Trump), and we're failing to do anything right now.
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