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The propellant and primer supply chain has ATF throughly up their rear end, and ATF is blue as it comes. Reloading preserves brass (and there's a lot of it out there already) but doesn't help with powder or primers.
The government is phenomenally bad at controlling chemicals, and ‘mass defections’ kind of makes it hard for the ATF to do their job.
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Ever since various intermittent supply chain issues (real and anticipated; starting well well before the most recent ones) it's safe to say that this issue has been... noted well in the enthusiast community. Whether for reasons of price inflation or fear of total unavailability, it's safe to say that there are now sufficient primers in hands both private and unsympathetic to the ATF to supply a serious black market or decent sized army.
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