This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
I don't know what Rasmussen is talking about. The 538 polling aggregator shows like a dozen polls coming out post-8/4. This includes ones from major pollers like NYT/Sienna, Ipsos, and Emerson. It's true that a bunch of these polls only included swing state numbers rather than national numbers but state numbers seem more useful to me anyway. That's where the election is actually won.
On the changing methodology, a bunch of pollers like NYT/Sienna and Ipsos publish their full crosstabs. If suddenly their sample was way more Democrats or Democrat leaning groups it would be pretty easy to check.
I agree, I really think a lot of it is just cope, trump thought he had it in the bag after the combination of getting shot at, the debate and the high coming out of the rnc. I don’t think that Kamala is particularly great but a lot of people don’t like trump and the fact that he is really starting to show his age isn’t helping either.
More options
Context Copy link
Truly stumped on this one. I've seen a steady drumbeat of fresh polling numbers everywhere in the news and social media. The pacing doesn't seem to be off at a glance. Is there any data to back up this claim?
On the flipside, this might be a brilliant choice from Rasmussen: simply by claiming it with no evidence offered they've convinced a significant percentage of readers that it must be true. We'll then fight and motte and bailey around crosstabs and swing states until we all go home certain Rasmussen was more or less right or wrong depending on our preconceived notions.
Yeah, but who's reading this? If you have to go looking for it then you're probably the kind of person who reads poll critically anyway, and the only people publishing this are hacks who are already in the bag for Trump trying to soothe the woes of his supporters. It's only going to get worse next week as the Dems get the usual boost from their convention. After that, the Republicans would need to make a bold move to regain their lead in the race, something so unthinkable that it would send shockwaves throughout the world — dumping Trump from the ticket. This obviously can't happen, and there's approximately zero chance that he realizes his goose is cooked a la Biden, but I hope that it does happen, not because I don't like Trump, but because it would make for the most anticlimactic election in US history. An almost impossibly bad debate performance, followed by an assassination attempt, followed by a major candidate dropping out mid-race, followed by the script completely flipping, followed by the other major candidate doing the unthinkable and dropping out as well, all before Labor Day. After that, it quickly becomes Harris vs. Haley: The election no one gives a shit about. No matter how many stories NPR runs about how historic it is that not only are two women running against each other but two South Asian women, no one will be able to escape the fact that the election is incredibly boring, unless pro-Trump conspiracy theorists try to bum rush a Haley event or something or start another insurrection.
Even if Trump dropped out (he won’t) Haley wouldn’t take the mantle. Haley wasn’t the second choice of most republicans. She was liked by a small group that dislikes Trump.
More options
Context Copy link
I gotta disagree. Trump has numerous buttons to press here. He's not out of moves.
But more importantly, things will keep happening. Zelensky and his boys in Kursk could commit a cheeky war crime or two. Netanyahu could finally bomb the wrong hospital. We could see the hard recession we're well overdue for. We might not know everything about Walz or Harris yet! Harris has more downside risk than upside risk in outside events.
Approximately no one cares.
A small portion of Democrats care, but they are already 100% anti-Israel.
Here's the import one.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
I'm seeing posts critical of the cross tabs, but they could just be huffing copium. Is there anything here or are they fully normal?
I do not make a habit of reading poll cross tabs but spot checking a few (Marist from 7/22, Trump +1 and Marist from last week, Harris +3) they don't seem incredibly different. On the other hand a four point swing is not that large so maybe you don't have to change the sample much to accomplish it.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link