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PaperclipPerfector  3mo ago (text post)   1370 thread views

Transnational Thursday for August 8, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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There are more:

  • Trying to force troop rotations away from the front inside Ukraine
  • Making the war less palatable to Russia by forcing conscripts to engage in battle
  • Trying to force Russia to keep attacking as their offensive culminates in order to extract favourable attrition/prevent them from comfortably entrenching their gains in Ukraine.
  • Hedging in case of a Trump victory by making a "ceasefire" unpalatable to Russia by holding russian territory.
  • A combination of all of the above and seeing what sticks.

Might this backfire on Ukraine by allowing Putin to cast it as a defensive war, giving him a freer hand to employ conscripts?

Not particularly. From a Russian legal perspective, the freer hand has already been secured via the annexation of the un-held territory. Putin doesn't need more political capital to change a law or anything, that's already been done. From a domestic politics perspective, the defensive casting probably doesn't sell, at least not in a way that doesn't invite semantic quibbling about how much Russians believe the propaganda versus parrot it.

Use of conscripts would technically mean a greater manpower replacement sustainability but at a cost of popularity.

As such, that is an explicit goal of Ukraine's. They want a greater use of conscripts by Russia. Would it be good or bad for the outcome of the war, who knows?

Use of conscripts would technically mean a greater manpower replacement sustainability but at a cost of popularity.

I don't know what is the mood like in Russia right now, but a defensive use of conscripts while volunteers focus on the offensive might be something you could sell to people.

Russia isn't manpower constrained given current recruitment methods (at the moment anyway), they materiel constrianed, which is why I said it would mean greater manpower replacement sustainability.

They can't outfit, mechanize and give air support to another army in addition to what they already have. If they could, they would have already.

And if one assumes an ugly grind, then it is better for it to take place in Russia. If fighting will involve artillery, glide bombs and drones turning towns and villages into ruins - then doing it on the other side of border seems preferable.

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