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PaperclipPerfector  3mo ago (text post)   2329 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for August 4, 2024

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

Culture war topics are accepted, and proposals for a better intro post are appreciated.

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The pivot to Kamala is looking to be among the greatest political manuvers of the last century. Trump's lead is now entirely gone. Are there any generally applicable lessons here? It seems plausible that primaries are counterproductive, but other than an idiosyncraticly unpopular incumbant stepping aside, I don't know how else to reliably replicate the magic.

Following polls too closely can drive you crazy. There are broad effects unrelated to the news cycle.

In this case, Republicans always poll poorly in August. A big chunk of the R base is outside camping or barbecuing and ignoring calls from pollsters.

Nate Silver was right yet again. The most generally applicable is probably simple - trust the polls. If people tell you that they don't like either of two options, then giving them a third option will improve your odds. Kamala somewhat outperforms her old polling, but the writing has been on the wall for some time that almost any replacement for Biden will improve the D's odds.

Theres an inverse monty hall problem here somehow and I want a smart person to provide the calculus of why switching after the donkey is revealed works here but not in the game.

I’m not sure there’s any lesson to take here other than don’t let openly senile people run for president?

Yeah it was a great move, but was very clearly the obvious one for a very long time, in the same way that telling an ugly fat guy to go to the gym and lose some weight is a great move if his goal is to attract women.

Are there any generally applicable lessons here?

People only care about the most recent interesting things to happen, and completely forget about the second to most recent thing. But that's nothing new.

And I was laughed at for saying that the second most recent Thing was a nothing burger.

was a nothing burger

It became nothing burger the second it was revealed the shooter didn't have a political motivation.

I mean, people always knew this, but they didn't intuitively grasp the implications. The new electoral meta might be waiting until a favorable pseudo-event happens and then literally hiding in a bunker until the election.

I kinda felt that's why that guy waited until days before the election to leak the "grab em by the pussy" footage. But Trump ended up winning anyway.

Give it time. We still have time for Chicago to be an historic disaster, for Kamala to do something foolish, for Netanyahu to do something disgusting leading to terrible Biden admin press, for Ukraine to collapse, for the stock market to crash, for like six more Boeing planes to crash.

After the shooting, I thought Trump had it in a walk. He's since managed to make it interesting. But that should be a reminder that anything can happen.

And, gee, the stock market is not looking great this morning.

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