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PaperclipPerfector  3mo ago (text post)   34077 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of July 29, 2024

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With regard to Krieger, there are three possibilities. Either he is innocent, then trying to make concessions to get him back will just mean that more Germans will get arrested to serve as hostages. Or he is guilty and was carrying out sabotage for the Ukranians, in which case the negotiations should be left to the Ukranians. Or he is guilty but was acting on behalf of Germany. In that case, the German agencies have some serious explaining to do, but they might rationally want to get him back.

I would guess that the "he was acting on behalf of Ukraine" story is correct, but Ukraine is not about to burn any trump cards on rescuing impressionable Germans (who I have anecdotal evidence Ukrainians mostly only feel disdain for) and as long as it is essentially German government policy to gently encourage its citizens to make sacrifices for Ukraine that go above and beyond what they feel they can defend as official policy, it would be counterproductive for them to not take the opportunity to bail him out.

For one thing, the latter was not running a terrorist organization from Berlin, and the chances to get the Germans to extradite him to Russia likely were much higher (back in 2019) than the chances of the Iranians extraditing the Hamas leader to Israel.

Sure, but this is already a low bar. Chechens (who even the SJW contingent of Western Europe seems to need to hold their noses about) are one thing, but Khangoshvili had aligned himself with the pro-European forces in Georgia, who continue to be the EU's baby; his likelihood of extradition would have been in the ballpark of that of the US extraditing some Chinese dissidents to the PRC.

For one thing, the latter was not running a terrorist organization from Berlin

I have heard some rumours that he continued supporting (materially? ideologically?) the Caucasus Emirate which is generally recognised as one, though this is one of those cases where it's impossible to discern what portion of claims/counterclaims/debunkings is credible.

All in all, I do agree that Putin comes out looking like the winner here to an extent that makes me wonder what was in it for the Western side. Are they hoping that they could reanimate the white-blue-white-flag exile opposition with the emergency injection of Kara-Murza? Was there some secret addendum with further favours that are not being made public for PR reasons (e.g. Russia releasing more valuable spooks or unambiguous terrorists)? Is this meant to establish goodwill for future trades (e.g. Griner)?

as long as it is essentially German government policy to gently encourage its citizens to make sacrifices for Ukraine that go above and beyond what they feel they can defend as official policy, it would be counterproductive for them to not take the opportunity to bail him out.

As a German, I generally value Russian hitman being in prison where they belong above rescuing people playing spy for third countries and failing. I mean, if he had been caught during a scheme to kill Putin, then that would be something within German geostrategic interest, and it would be in Germany's interests to bring him back. Doing a bit of sabotage to hamper their war effort feels rather minor by comparison.

Right, assuming there were not in fact hidden additional elements, this trade does of course look flat out disadvantageous to Germany. I'm just trying to argue that the Germans did get something out of it (standing by conspicuously doing nothing as the US bails all of its citizens in trouble in the Eastern Bloc out might also be a bad look, and German media sure seemed to be fixated on the guy for several days/weeks before the trade while the hitman's release is already being buried). Ultimately, such is the life of the vassal; sometimes you have to humiliate yourself to help your master save face.

All in all, I do agree that Putin comes out looking like the winner here to an extent that makes me wonder what was in it for the Western side.

Return of reporters in exchange for support of Harris.

So, we should expect a column from Evan Gershkovich in support of Harris?

No need for them to be that obvious about it. Just more favorable coverage from the WSJ in general.

Pay attention kids, that's how a pro traps his prior.

That's how a pro avoid an obvious gotcha.

It's not a gotcha to expect beliefs to interface with reality in an observable way.

It's certainly a gotcha for you to make a prediction on my behalf.

I did no such thing, I asked if we should expect X to happen (if we assume Y is true).

Are you positing a counterfactual timeline in which journalists conclude that whatever the alternative to Harris is acceptable for them, and have enough class consciousness and coordination to punish the establishment by tanking her because they wouldn't protect one of their own?

One of the reporters was from the Wall Street Journal, which is less hostile to Trump than the usual mainstream publication. Keeping them on-side may well have been a goal.

I suspect that the DNC is really up its own asshole enough to believe such a thing, even if it's very likely not true.

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