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The election is over unless the Dems figure out how to nominate Michelle Obama. She might have a punchers chance but I think she would lose but make it interesting.
IMO Michelle Obama is particularly popular because she has never presented herself as a particularly partisan figure. That serves really well in the role of FLOTUS, but I think the luster would quickly be lost once voters disagree with her on issues. Also I think a nontrivial subset of American voters really hate the idea of political dynasties.
Maybe she is, but is she actually popular outside of Democrats who already hero-worship the Obamas? It doesn't seem to me to be a crossover popularity that would bring in another cohort that isn't already on the "likely voter" table.
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I think if they ran one of the moderate governors like Shapiro or Beshear they would clean up. A lot of people viscerally hate Trump and a competent, clean cut white guy who can win over a swing state and doesn’t have any woke baggage would really flip the tables on the GOP imo.
When was the last time the dems even ran a guy like that? Kerry in 04 is the last one that kind of fits the bill. Put somebody like that against Trump and it’s over.
Of course this is assuming the Dems do the smart thing instead of trying to throw Kamala up there (Political seppuku)?
I have to admit that I haven't really followed either, but has either delivered on the promise to be a moderate in the way that a Governor like Larry Hogan did? Biden in 2020 was able to sell the illusion of moderation largely because he had huge name ID from being VP, no recent record (since he hadn't done anything meaningful in 12 years), and the special circumstances of the covid campaign that let him run a sort of blank slate campaign with few rallies/appearances. As the infamous Maury Povich meme would say, "That was a lie." And a big reason Joe isn't +10 on Trump despite being old and declining is because it was a lie. If the Joe we were sold in 2020 actually was governing, inflation would never have spiked as hard as it did, there wouldn't be naked activists in White House photo ops, we'd only have one super embarrassing female Supreme Court Justice, there wouldn't be an embarrassing collapsed bridge in the Mediterranean intended to supply terrorists with stuff, etc etc.
So are Shapiro and Beshear really moderates? Have they let through 20+ week abortion bans? Have they let fracking happen when they had the chance to stop it? Have they stopped people trying to trans the kids?
The problem with running a "moderate" no one knows about is you have to establish their moderate bona fides. And usually this ends up being a lie. Sure, sometimes a real moderate like Romney or McCain gets the nomination, but they lose that luster pretty quickly when the Eye of Sauron is on them. And I have a suspicion that for relatively unknown Democrat governors, there will be little in actual evidence of being moderate.
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So... Manchin?
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I wouldn't count Kerry. Gore probably.
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I think there's still space for plenty of candidates to have a chance.
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Michelle would have maybe a 30-40% chance, Newsom would be similar, Kamala and Biden are likely at around 20-25%. To boost the chance over 50% would require resetting the narrative, there are only two viable candidates in that case (Clooney and Oprah) and neither wants to run.
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