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PaperclipPerfector  4mo ago (text post)   38822 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of July 15, 2024

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If Trump wins the WH, how do Dems win the senate? They are going to lose WV. They would lose the tie break. I don’t see Trump and a dem senate.

Current 270towin map at least has Republicans projected to get to 50, Democrats getting 48, and two states (OH and MT) as toss-ups. Since presidency is tiebreaker, I have to agree with your analysis here. The two least safe seats outside of that are Texas and Florida... yeah, no chance in hell that happens. That means even if they pick up both toss-ups and all their leaners, they still lose a tiebreaker if they lose the presidential race.

It's unlikely, but not impossible. Strange things happen. I'd probably also give Biden credit if they hold it to 50/50 and then win Vance's seat in the special election.

R Senate candidates have had it rough since Dobbs. Statewide in general. There's always the chance a pretty blonde teenage rape victim dies as a result of a problem pregnancy.

That hasn’t happened, though, the underaged girl denied an abortion by Ohio law was knocked up by her mother’s illegal immigrant boyfriend.

What hasn't happened? Rs have definitely lost winnable races since Dobbs.

And who knows why one case becomes famous and another fades into obscurity. Why are George Floyd and Michael Brown more well known than Philando Castile? It's a mystery, but it does happen.

But have R's lost winnable races due to abortion, or has it been nominating Dr. Oz for some reason?

I'm thinking more of the Kansas abortion referendum as the most indicative, where it lost in every district.

Sure, I'll buy that abortion restrictions are unpopular. I won't buy that they're a top voting issue.

When you had otherwise strong candidates running on hardline pro-life positions, they won. And they often won by unusually high margins.

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