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As an update, Chuckie is now calling for Biden to drop out. Massive.
So far the "collective amnesia in one week" predictions have not panned out.
Another congressman calling for Biden to step aside: https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2024-07-17/schiff-calls-on-biden-to-drop-out-citing-serious-concerns-that-he-can-win
Admittedly, I may have been too cynical. Biden's obvious mental decline is proving stickier post debate than I thought.
Edit: On further reflection, I think I was correct in how the Biden admin would try to manage it. Try to recover with some very selective, heavily scripted appearances where he has it at least as together as he did pre-debate. They clearly tried to execute on that, with the Holt interview and the "Big Boy" press conference. It's just not working. The vibe shift has been too much. The core of my post, that normies would be put back to sleep, seems to be false.
I guess I could double down, and say be patient, the regime will find the correct narrative xanax and the normies will resume their slumber. I can't rule it out. But that really doesn't seem to be the direction things are going. More over, all their "Trump is a unique evil that must be stopped by any means necessary" rhetoric suffered an enormous blow to it's effectiveness after the assassination attempt. All their dog whistles, or just overt statements, about how it would be justified to murder Trump to save Democracy got a lot too real, and people are recoiling. So that narrative xanax got flushed down the toilet too.
I donno. Maybe they'll still pull something out of their hat. But at this moment, my cynicism with regard to normies seems unfounded for once.
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This is bad faith. Most of the "collective amnesia" arguments here on the Motte were talking about what would happen if/when Biden manages to secure the nomination. And the jury is still very much out on that.
Not sure how you go from "collective amnesia in one week" to "amnesia after the nomination". It's not bad faith just because the argument didn't pan out.
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Trump shooting really should have been Biden's deliverance. If they're still pressuring despite that, hard to see him clinging on.
I still don't see the mechanism for turning "people saying Biden should drop out" into "Biden drops out". He's clearly intending to hang on and run the clock out till the convention. More people telling him not to do that is going to change what?
It's a convention challenge or a 25th amendment scenario, those are the options. No one is even hinting at them. So he stays.
I feel the continuing push from the party has to be indicative of somebody thinking there's a vulnerability there.
I don't think so. I think politicians say stuff with no intention or ability to actually change things all the freaking time.
It probably shows that more and more Democrats are making the calculation that it's better for their personal position to call for him to drop out than to keep pretending that he's fine.
That pivot has to have some correlation with perceived likelihood of him dropping out, though? There were whispers, they quietened a bit, and now they're back in action so I think there must be some sort of potential weakness displayed by Biden.
I think it has to have some correlation with him doing badly. That could be dropping out or losing the election.
But if this is some managed kabuki theater before Biden steps down, I'd expect one of the names floating around to replace him to be solidified a bit before any of it actually goes down. Maybe I'm not plugged in enough, but that doesn't seem to have happened.
Betting markets think it's most likely Harris
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The weakness displayed by Biden is that he hasn't responded, at all.
Your ace pitcher goes out and gets shelled. Ok, whatever, off night, it happens, no real impact on your perception of him. But then he goes out and gives up three runs in five 2/3 innings the next time around. Normal below-average outing, not reallly a sign of anything. But then he goes through two more starts and never makes it to the seventh inning. Now you're starting to wonder if he's lost his fastball.
I think Biden has been distinctly below average, but not notably so, over the time since the debate. If he had performed well at the debate, we wouldn't have any feeling that this represented a problem. But after the debate, he needed to come out and right the ship, and he hasn't. And a lot of people in the horse-race political media are saying "Why aren't the Biden people doing more?" And it's slowly becoming clear that they're not doing more because they can't, because he can't.
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It is weird. If they didn’t come out and say anything, then isn’t the blame mostly with Biden? If they say something and Biden stays and loses, then isn’t some of the blame directed to them? Likewise if Harris replaces Biden and loses, isn’t some of the blame directed to them?
What is the upside play? I wonder if this helps somehow down ballot races.
I don't understand this. If Biden loses after you (some Democratic politician) stay silent, then Democratic voters can blame you for not pressuring him enough to drop out (even if "enough" to convince Biden were an impossibility). Biden would probably still take most of the blame, but you'd be left vulnerable due to your apparent lack of effort to prevent this outcome. On the other hand, if you speak out and Biden still runs and loses, you can claim to have predicted this and worked your hardest to prevent it but was helpless to do so due to Biden not listening to reason. It'd at least provide a defense.
I suppose voters could blame you and others who spoke out for casting doubt on Biden and thus making him a weaker candidate vs Trump? Given how many Americans, even Democrats, seem to consider Biden already too old to run the campaign/country, I'd think that a politician loudly proclaiming such doubt wouldn't stand out as harmful, just as someone speaking an uncomfortable truth.
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I think a lot of the upside play is they don't have to go around making themselves look stupid insisting Biden is as sharp and vigorous as ever.
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I guess we'll just have to wait and see.
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