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Notes -
Correct.
I'd wager about 47% of the vote (so, about 94% of the Blue tribe vote) is simply "Blue Tribe good. Orange man bad." The average voter looks at Biden and goes, "Oh, yeah, that guy isn't even on this planet. But...fuck Trump." They will vote for whatever blue option is there. This is why Harris (should the hot swap happen) will end up with "A historic share of the vote for the first BIPOC womyn candidate for President" .... even though most of her voters will (again) simply be smashing that Blue Like Button.
The obvious thing that I think is being missed is that the polling data for Biden is really, really, really bad:
Again, my back of the envelope math is that about 94% of the vote is already set in stone. If all you have to work with is about ~6%, the polls can't ever do a truly wild 10+ point swing. Most of all of it is already hard locked in.
This is why it's so on-its-face hilarious that you have some (not all, maybe not even many, but some) media outlets trying to spin the post debate polls as "hey, the polls have only moved against Biden 2 or 3 points maybe" when that's something like 30-40% of all moveable (I.e. not hard set) votes. It's a huge deal, especially because debates are mostly viewed as nothing burgers in recent campaign histories.
Lies, damn lies, and statistics. Presidential race polling is one of the most potent forms of copium with an overlayer of confirmation-bias rohrshach test. See also: the UK elections wherein "polls" had Labor absolutely "crushing" everyone and actual results showing ... 34% of the national vote (this is a little apples-to-oranges as the structure of British Parliament means you can win even though you don't win a big vote share, and I acknowledge that).
I mean it depends on who you're listening to. AFAIK virtually all of the actual pollsters, rather than politicians (or anchors) who make use of polls, have said that the polling is absolutely dreadful for Biden, and that was true to some extent even before the debate. Second-hand poll users are free to make arguments about how weak the polling is, but that does not make it what the primary sources are saying, so to speak.
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The danger to the DNC is mostly not that regular dem voters will vote for Trump. That's probably not happening, except for however much racial realignment is going on.
The danger for democrats is that those voters will stay home instead of voting for Biden and throw downballot races.
Granted VBM has reduced this risk somewhat as it reduces the cost of voting.
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