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I agree Trump has never been a great debater, but he generally held his own in 2016 against both the Republican challengers and against Hillary. I encourage anyone who doesn't see the difference to watch some clips from 2016, and then watch some of his responses from tonight right after. The difference is quite stark.
I don't disagree that the Dems have some tough choices ahead for them. If they try to nix Biden, that's unprecedented and causes chaos and is undemocratic. If they don't get rid of him, he'll probably lose. Trump would probably even get to 47% and beyond in that case (he didn't in either of his previous elections).
The big issue with Biden is that he’s manifestly unfit to be president in the ‘can’t do the job’ sense. If democrats won’t show up to vote Biden because of that, the odds are they won’t vote downballot either, which can massacre democrats in congress.
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I found this analysis lines up pretty closely with my thinking about debates, from a pollster who does "dial testing" where voters instantly react to things throughout the debate. His claim: it's usually not about the one-liners and what the media hypes. For example, a lot of people didn't notice Bush Sr. check his watch, or care; Trump's first Biden debate performance where he interrupted a lot played very very poorly with women voters; Trump's "because she'd be in jail" against Hillary was actually loved by a lot of viewers. Just to pick a few examples he listed about how the classic "big moments" analysis is often wrong or misguided by popular media.
I'd say in terms of debate performances from Trump, 2016 > 2024 > 2020, but we've only seen one debate of two so that might still change. I'd peg a Biden victory in the 25-40% range, currently. Not impossible, but not the kind of numbers we usually see in presidential races where it's normally 40-60% in the last 30 years or so.
Yeah, I agree with that article. Anyone who knows anything about politics knows that debates as they ought to be (the issues) are a farce. They're just two simultaneous press conferences, and voters care about amorphous "vibes" more than anything. Nobody can really predict what the definitive vibes will be even shortly after the debate, and in the end they usually don't matter much anyways (e.g. Romney's first debate in 2012).
For Trump's debate performances, I generally agree but will add nuance that I think 2016 > second debate 2020 > 2024 > first debate 2020. The second (non cancelled) presidential debate of 2020 Trump did... fine? I can't remember much about it. At least he didn't blatantly shoot himself in the foot like he did in the first one.
For current odds of Biden's victory, I peg it at around 25% now, with a 15% chance the Dems switch candidates and win, and a 60% chance that Trump wins.
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I don't know if you intended this to be a subtle "ha ha, I got you!" If not, nbd. If you did -- it's not the win you think it is. You're absolutely correct Trump got less than 47% in both 2016 and 2020 which means he unperformed a replacement level Republican candidate - and came out on top the first time. Donald Trump is the worst Presidential candidate in the modern era .... except for Hillary Clinton. Depending on this years results, he might end up in a weird tie for second-worst candidate with Joe Biden - and also be a two term President.
Again, Donald Trump is a stationary target highlighted in high contrast paint. The Democrats have perfect data on windage and distance, and have the ability to sight in with lasers and use a bench rest to take their shot.
Their first instinct, since 2016, has been to shoot themselves repeatedly in the face.
The problem with this is that the Dems are also held hostage by a galaxy of personal interests and corruption - the uniparty policies that Trump makes vast amounts of noise about taking down (his actual effectiveness at doing so has been mixed, of course). Sure, the democrats COULD change things around and run a real candidate who can stand up to Trump both in terms of personality and policy... but they won't, in the same sense that I COULD spontaneously type in the private key to some random BTC wallet and transfer myself a vast sum of money.
Apparently Trump is going to be getting big oil and gas money this cycle, among other billionaires. He's even letting them write executive orders for his team, allegedly in part because the corps don't trust that he'll get enough talent to write them good enough themselves. I wouldn't hold my breath for any swamp-draining from either candidate this time around.
But I think the Democrats are genuinely echo-chambered, rather than being ruled by deliberate PMC plants. Too much college education, I hate to say it.
Would trump’s oil and gas policies be any different from what the industry wants?
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The unprincipled calls for "windfall" taxes blackpilled a lot of people in the energy industry, who were very much willing to join the uniparty in 2020.
Most people assume that oil is this incredibly profitable industry. That hasn't been very true since 2014, when U.S. fracking flooded the world with cheap oil. Since then the price of XOM stock has flatlined, while tech companies like Apple and Microsoft have increased by 500% or more. Many smaller energy companies failed to survive the 8 year downturn.
When a small positive cycle came around in 2022 (with inflation-adjusted peak prices still far below the 2010–2014 norm), some oil companies were finally, after nearly a decade, making profits again. To be immediately hit with calls for windfall taxes was a powerful reminder that the Democrats hate energy companies and want them to fail. It is quite literally the inverse of what people think. In energy, the profits are socialized while the losses are privatized.
You make a great point. More voters should certainly be aware of this, and I agree that looting the oil/gas industry isn't the best policy prescription either. However, it's worth noting that the oil and gas industry is one of those that has a particularly nasty personal history in terms of how they encourage certain foreign policy objectives, and also their treatment of the environment overall as well as people who interfere with traditional pollution. It's a bit naive to think that some of these at least slightly evil executives are all gone just because 10 bad years have passed. Some institutional skepticism, then, I feel is still warranted. But yeah, skepticism != hate and desire for failure. Also worth noting that at least my perception is that actual anti-oil Democrats are still the minority in the party. Oil, after all, still gives a fair amount of jobs.
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Request: General write-up on your views on the Energy industry. Genuinely curious as I nerd out on anybody who has more than a surface level of how different sectors work. Too much "financial analysis" is Bloomberg levels of "Well, apple sells phones and I used my phone this morning, so I guess apple is a great investment!"
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I wonder how different the executive order writing (assuming it would indeed be happening as presented) is from the standard lobbyist contribution to legislation? Obviously, the latter at least has some sort of check in the form of other legislators having to vote on it.
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I think Democrats just have misidentified Trump's appeal, and thus all their messaging is aimed at the wrong (voter) target. They've lost their populist everyman instincts, badly. So yes, Trump is highlighted, but you aren't aiming at Trump, you're aiming at voters. Typical swing voters often make their decisions on gut more than brain. (That's fine, BTW, I personally think). And yes, there's some infighting too. But the GOP has had some significant infighting as well, which has also hurt them, so I'm hesitant to totally blame that alone. Which is why I think constructing the message wrong is, yes, a bit of a self-own, but not because of a lack of vision, it's a lack of awareness.
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