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Probably. But before the election there will be months of Trump walking around doing normal Trump things. And lots of people are under the impression that you get convicted and immediately dragged to prison. They'll equate him being out and about with the conviction having been overturned or no big deal or something.
If they don't jail him until the election, citing his attitude as reason to jail him even though it's a first offense.
The impression I'm getting is that standard practice in these sorts of cases is to grant bail pending appeal. So it's highly unlikely he goes to jail before the election even if he gets a prison sentence, as the inevitable appeals process will almost certainly not conclude before the election.
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I doubt it. They've treated him with kid gloves in the contempt of court procedures so far, fining him what were objectively pissant amounts for attacking the judge's family. He could easily be in jail already for contempt, and he's not, so I think they will be much too cowardly to jail him immediately. He's highly likely to remain free, even absent any appeals, until November.
The Merchan's daughter is working for a political consulting group raising money from Trump's trial. I.e., Merchan's family is profiting from this case. When Trump pointed out this conflict of interest, Merchan's response was to accuse Trump of attacking his family, gag order him, and then hold Trump in contempt for calling this unfair. This is decidedly not treating Trump with "kid gloves".
Why he was held in contempt is irrelevant to the point that he was held in contempt, and the penalties assessed for contempt of court were minuscule, to Trump. No effort was made to assess a penalty that would actually harm Trump, like multi-million dollar fines or imprisonment. That is kid gloves.
I'll make the point here that the judge was legally barred from fining Trump more than $1k for each instance of contempt. He could have jailed him, but he could not have levied multi million dollar fines.
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It goes directly to your false description and whether it was appropriate to even gag him in the first place.
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"We made up something you did wrong, but only punished you slightly" is not kid gloves. Kid gloves are when you punish people lightly for severe offenses.
Terminology aside: Wouldn't your argument imply that they will once again be too cowardly to harshly punish Trump on trumped up charges once we get to sentencing?
If the charges are illegitimate, any sentence is inherently harsh.
As for predictions, I'm not entirely sure. I think it's extremely likely that Merchan will impose something like house arrest that effectively bars Trump from the campaign trail. Jail? I'm not sure they'll go that far, but I wouldn't put money on it.
I'll register that I expect the sentence to amount to nothing until the election is past. By whatever method, Trump will be free to move about as usual until December.
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